244 Paschel Ave · Hurlburt Field, FL 32569

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · Manufactured public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2006 9,375 sqft lot $159/sqft · 78% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2006-built mobile home on a . 22-acre lot in Mary Esther! Just a few miles west of Hurlburt Field, this property is tucked away at the end of a quiet street, offering privacy and comfort. Inside, you'll find: * A brand-new kitchen with modern appliances * Fresh paint throughout * New flooring, fixtures, and doors * 2 spacious bedrooms, each with its own full bathroom * The home also features a tiled roof for durability * Backyard complete with a storage shed. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or investing, this one check all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to make it yours—schedule a showing today

Key facts

• Updated mobile home
• Tiled roof
• Brand new kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED MOBILE HOME
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• TILED ROOF
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.6% in Hurlburt Field — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.66%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,000
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 78.12%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,070
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,157
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,360/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,432

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,850	$1.34	13d	1	0.42mi
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,000	$1.45	43d	1	0.42mi
46 Kathleen Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	20d	1	0.78mi
20 Stowe Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	20d	1	0.91mi
806 Boulevard de Lorleans Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	20d	1	0.98mi
806 Boulevard de Lorleans Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	43d	1	0.98mi
324 Michael Cir Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	1.20mi
311 Evergreen Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,895	$1.48	20d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,900 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $179,900 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 2006-built mobile home on a . 22-acre lot in Mary Esther! Just a few miles west of Hurlburt Field, this property is tucked away at the end of a quiet street, offering privacy and comfort. Inside, you'll find: * A brand-new kitchen with modern appliances * Fresh paint throughout * New flooring, fixtures, and doors * 2 spacious bedrooms, each with its own full bathroom * The home also features a tiled roof for durability * Backyard complete with a storage shed. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or investing, this one check all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to make it yours—schedule a showing today

17. 2026-02-09
    listed $199,900 Active 675-char remark

    Show marketing remark (675 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 2006-built mobile home on a . 22-acre lot in Mary Esther! Just a few miles west of Hurlburt Field, this property is tucked away at the end of a quiet street, offering privacy and comfort. Inside, you'll find: * A brand-new kitchen with modern appliances * Fresh paint throughout * New flooring, fixtures, and doors * 2 spacious bedrooms, each with its own full bathroom * The home also features a tiled roof for durability * Backyard complete with a storage shed. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or investing, this one check all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to make it yours—schedule a showing today

18. 2025-10-16
    price $199,900
19. 2025-09-10
    listed $205,900 Active
20. 1997-03-01
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,360 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$134/yr (+$11/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,360
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $2,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$490
• After-tax cash flow: $4,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hurlburt Field

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 2,344
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+227.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $179,900 ECAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $199,900 ECAR
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $199,900 ECAR
• 2025-09-10 Listed $205,900 ECAR
• 1997-03-01 Listed $55,000 ECAR

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,360 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.