6630 Sienna Sunrise Ln · Houston, TX 77493

$293,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 $136/sqft · 88% below area $183/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $293k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $54k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $260,067 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.36%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,500,000
• List price: $293,490
• Delta: -88.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-49,255
• Equity at exit: $43,760

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-64,721
• Equity at exit: $25,376

Cash invested: $82,177 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,601 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,539
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,405/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,483

Max offer price $293,490

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $176	+0% $93	+5% $10	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-10	+0% $93	+5% $196	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $168	base $93	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,372
• Closing costs: $8,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	0.18mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	0.47mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	0.63mi
5835 Big Bluestem Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2890	$2,406	$0.83	45d	1	0.87mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	0.89mi
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	45d	1	0.95mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.98mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	45d	1	0.99mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	1.19mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	1.28mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	1.34mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	1.44mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $293,490 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-04
   price $304,140 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $315,790 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-27
   price $320,990 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-20
   price $330,990 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-04-17
   price $336,190 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-04-02
   price $341,440 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-03-31
   listed $346,990 Active 597-char remark

   Show marketing remark (597 chars)

   The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-03-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    The Netcher Floor Plan - This new single-story home features a gracious layout with ample space to grow and entertain. Two secondary bedrooms share a hallway bathroom off the foyer, while around the corner is a quiet third bedroom. At the heart of the home is an airy open-concept living area complemented by a practical study and a covered patio. In the corner is the serene owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2026-03-26
    price $346,990
12. 2026-03-26
    listed $378,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,405 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,371 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,966/yr (+$330/mo · 282.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,440
• − Property taxes: −$1,405
• − Insurance: −$1,467
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,497
• − Management: −$2,497
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$8,538
• Taxable loss: −$3,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$920
• After-tax cash flow: $2,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $293,490 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $304,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $315,790 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $320,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $330,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $336,190 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $341,440 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $346,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $346,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $378,990 HARMLS