1802 Hubbard Dr · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$218,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home is very spacious and completely remodeled. With 4 beds/2 baths, this home will fit any of your guests needs. Both bathrooms boast his and her sinks. The kitchen was designed to work for you with easy access to both the living room and dining area. The updates include all new: interior/exterior paint, tile and laminate flooring throughout, kitchen cabinets and countertops, stainless steel appliance package, HVAC system and more. This home is a gem!

Key facts

• Built 1991

Tags

• FULLY FUNCTIONAL SOLAR SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($535/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,196 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-34,917
• Equity at exit: $32,505

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-36,467
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,359/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $218,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $106	+0% $45	+5% $-17	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-25	+0% $45	+5% $114	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $100	base $45	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1502 Campbell Pl Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,450	$0.80	25d	1	0.43mi
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	25d	1	0.62mi
1409 Juniper Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	2536	$1,550	$0.61	45d	1	0.73mi
2606 Pontiac Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,650	$0.92	25d	1	0.76mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	1.03mi
3007 Del Sur Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1901	$1,800	$0.95	45d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $218,000 Active
2. 2022-07-08
   soldstatus 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   This beautiful home is very spacious and completely remodeled. With 4 beds/2 baths, this home will fit any of your guests needs. Both bathrooms boast his and her sinks. The kitchen was designed to work for you with easy access to both the living room and dining area. The updates include all new: interior/exterior paint, tile and laminate flooring throughout, kitchen cabinets and countertops, stainless steel appliance package, HVAC system and more. This home is a gem!

3. 2019-12-23
   soldstatus
4. 2019-10-06
   listed $155,900 471-char remark

   Show marketing remark (471 chars)

   This beautiful home is very spacious and completely remodeled. With 4 beds/2 baths, this home will fit any of your guests needs. Both bathrooms boast his and her sinks. The kitchen was designed to work for you with easy access to both the living room and dining area. The updates include all new: interior/exterior paint, tile and laminate flooring throughout, kitchen cabinets and countertops, stainless steel appliance package, HVAC system and more. This home is a gem!

5. 2018-12-17
   soldstatus
6. 2018-12-14
   soldstatus 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   Great Opportunity!! Fixer Upper. Living room, Den with fireplace, Dining room, Addition, Shed, Pitched roof, New gas line from ally to house, Single car garage, 3 bedrooms, and 1.75 bath home.

7. 2018-12-04
   listed $65,000 192-char remark

   Show marketing remark (192 chars)

   Great Opportunity!! Fixer Upper. Living room, Den with fireplace, Dining room, Addition, Shed, Pitched roof, New gas line from ally to house, Single car garage, 3 bedrooms, and 1.75 bath home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,359 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$385/yr (+$32/mo · 28.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$1,359
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$3,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $1,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+235.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $218,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-07-08 Sold (MLS) — OCAOR
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-06 Listed $155,900 OCAOR
• 2018-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) — OCAOR
• 2018-12-04 Listed $65,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,359 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.