58 Carlotta · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77327

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 607 Days on market

Built 1982 7,501 sqft lot $47/sqft · 48% above area Est $34k · 48% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property needs a little TLC and area has flooded in the past but not this house.

Key facts

• Area has flooded
• Property needs tlc
• 7,501 sq ft lot

Tags

• PROPERTY NEEDS TLC
• AREA HAS FLOODED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.9% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 607 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 607 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.03%
• DSCR: 4.43
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $33,872
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 47.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1999 County Road 2166	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	898 (-15%)	9mo	$65,000	$72	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $23,855
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $67,358
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 607 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 606 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 605 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 604 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 602 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 598 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 597 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 596 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $50,000 Active 593 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 592 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 591 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 590 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 589 DOM
14. 2024-10-19
    listed $50,000 Active 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Property needs a little TLC and area has flooded in the past but not this house.

15. 2024-10-10
    historical
16. 2024-04-10
    listed $50,000 Active
17. 2021-07-30
    historical
18. 2021-03-17
    listed $50,000 Active
19. 2016-04-19
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2016-04-04
    status Pending
21. 2016-02-08
    status Active
22. 2016-01-31
    status Pending
23. 2016-01-18
    status Option Pending
24. 2015-11-23
    listed $30,000 Active
25. 2013-04-19
    historical
26. 2013-04-18
    soldstatus
27. 2012-09-21
    listed $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$5,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,502
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,320
• After-tax cash flow: $4,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-19 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-10 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-03-17 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 2016-04-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-04-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-02-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-01-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-11-23 Listed $30,000 HARMLS
• 2013-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-04-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-09-21 Listed $26,000 HARMLS