12262 Wild Pine Dr Unit A · Houston, TX 77039

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,313 sqft · Townhouse public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1979 1,710 sqft lot $69/sqft · 15% below area Est $106k · 15% under $202/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom 2 bath with a loft upstairs for an optional 3rd bedroom or office space. Renovated. Detached 2 car garage! 2 year lease in place until 3-6-2028.

Key facts

• $202 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Johnson El (math 14% / reading 11%, grade F, #4,167 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 597 students, 98% FRL); Hambrick Middle (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,520 of 1,662 statewide, top 92%, 1,021 students, 93% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 3,571 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 7726% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,375
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -15.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12282 Wild Pine Dr Unit A	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,313 (0%)	11mo	$99,900	$76	88
12306 Wild Pine Dr Unit D	0.09mi	2/2.5	1,196 (-9%)	4mo	$69,000	$58	76
5618 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.27mi	2/1.5	1,411 (+8%)	4mo	$64,900	$46	69
12339 W Village Dr Unit D	0.33mi	2/1.5	1,340 (+2%)	12mo	$55,000	$41	69
12315 W Village Dr Unit A	0.35mi	2/1.5	1,340 (+2%)	16mo	$88,000	$66	65
12439 W Village Dr Unit B	0.41mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,320 (+0%)	15mo	$110,000	$83	61
5710 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-9%)	20mo	$100,000	$83	58
12411 W Village Dr Unit B	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,320 (+0%)	20mo	$105,000	$80	58
12227 W Village Dr Unit D	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,134 (-14%)	10mo	$58,880	$52	55
12215 W Village Dr Unit D	0.27mi	2/2.5	1,135 (-14%)	11mo	$85,000	$75	53
12307 W Village Dr Unit C	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,491 (+14%)	15mo	$135,700	$91	45
5715 Easthampton Dr Unit D	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+14%)	19mo	$160,000	$107	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-6,744
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $4,843
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77039

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,886/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$202
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $145	+0% $120	+5% $94	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $66	+0% $120	+5% $173	+10% $227
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $142	base $120	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5001 Aldine Mail Route Rd Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1065	$1,006	$0.94	45d	16	0.79mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	0.88mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	5d	1	1.01mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	1.41mi
4505 Aldine Mail Rte Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,350	$1.71	2d	6	1.45mi
5526 Rotan Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$900	$0.86	20d	1	1.46mi
4610 Anice St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$1,566	$0.88	14d	1	1.47mi
4505 Aldine Mail Route Rd Unit 712 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	929	$1,325	$1.43	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $202 · $2,424/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-03-06
    historical $1,150
17. 2026-02-17
    listed $1,150
18. 2026-02-15
    listed $90,000 Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    2 bedroom 2 bath with a loft upstairs for an optional 3rd bedroom or office space. Renovated. Detached 2 car garage! 2 year lease in place until 3-6-2028.

19. 2026-01-24
    historical
20. 2025-08-26
    historical $999
21. 2025-08-08
    listed $999
22. 2025-07-24
    listed $125,000 Active
23. 2016-02-15
    historical
24. 2016-01-09
    listed $57,900 Active
25. 2015-11-30
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2015-11-19
    status Pending
27. 2015-11-14
    status Option Pending
28. 2015-09-24
    listed $36,000 Active
29. 2015-05-27
    historical
30. 2015-03-23
    status Active
31. 2015-03-13
    status Option Pending
32. 2015-01-06
    price $35,000
33. 2014-12-04
    price $45,900
34. 2014-12-04
    listed $40,000 Active
35. 2014-11-21
    historical
36. 2014-11-06
    price $45,900
37. 2014-11-06
    price $44,900
38. 2014-09-16
    listed $45,900 Active
39. 2011-05-11
    historical
40. 2011-04-21
    listed $15,500
41. 2008-08-05
    soldstatus $375,000
42. 1990-10-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,886 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,886 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,886
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,302
• − Management: −$1,302
• − HOA: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$61
• After-tax cash flow: $1,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,862
• Household income: $47,119
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1128.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 84% Two or more races 15% Black 9% White 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.88%
• Current HPI: 316.66
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Rental Removed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed for Rent $1,150 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Rental Removed $999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed for Rent $999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2016-02-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-01-09 Listed $57,900 HARMLS
• 2015-11-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-11-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-11-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-24 Listed $36,000 HARMLS
• 2015-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-01-06 Price Changed $35,000 HARMLS
• 2014-12-04 Price Changed $45,900 HARMLS
• 2014-12-04 Listed $40,000 HARMLS
• 2014-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-11-06 Price Changed $44,900 HARMLS
• 2014-11-06 Price Changed $45,900 HARMLS
• 2014-09-16 Listed $45,900 HARMLS
• 2011-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-04-21 Listed $15,500 HARMLS
• 2008-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,886 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.