807 Lexington St · Plainview, TX 79072

$56,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1940 7,013 sqft lot $37/sqft · 33% below area Est $86k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST LISTED! This renovation-ready gem that is waiting for your personal touch! 807 Lexington is a single-story property with three bedrooms, one bathroom, and a fantastic layout. To help jump start your process, a NEW ROOF has been installed (porch not included). It is nestled within a quiet and secure neighborhood. This location provides you with nearby access to I-27 and has tons of popular destinations close by being down the road from Wayland Baptist University, Running Water Draw Regional Park, and tons of local supermarkets and restaurants. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property. When you call us be sure and ask about the other properties that we may have available in the Plainview Area.

Key facts

• Close by restaurants
• New roof
• 7,013 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEARBY ACCESS TO I-27
• CLOSE BY LOCAL SUPERMARKETS
• CLOSE BY RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $57k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#393 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety C-.
• Plainview ISD (town): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #445 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,159 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.35%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,558
• List price: $56,999
• Delta: -33.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $17,362
• Equity at exit: $8,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $49,489
• Equity at exit: $4,928

Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79072

• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $555

Max offer price $56,999

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $449	-5% $433	+0% $417	+5% $401	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $374	+0% $417	+5% $460	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $431	base $417	+0.5pp $402	+1.0pp $387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,250
• Closing costs: $1,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1706 Yonkers St Plainview, TX	2.0	1.5	1280	$1,050	$0.82	45d	1	1.12mi
1321 Navajo Trl Plainview, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$925	$0.77	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $56,999 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $56,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,999 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $56,999 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $56,999 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $56,999 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $56,999 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,999 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $56,999 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $56,999 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $56,999 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $56,999 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $56,999 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $56,999 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-02-17
    listed $56,999 Active 892-char remark

    Show marketing remark (892 chars)

    JUST LISTED! This renovation-ready gem that is waiting for your personal touch! 807 Lexington is a single-story property with three bedrooms, one bathroom, and a fantastic layout. To help jump start your process, a NEW ROOF has been installed (porch not included). It is nestled within a quiet and secure neighborhood. This location provides you with nearby access to I-27 and has tons of popular destinations close by being down the road from Wayland Baptist University, Running Water Draw Regional Park, and tons of local supermarkets and restaurants. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream property. When you call us be sure and ask about the other properties that we may have available in the Plainview Area.

19. 2025-09-10
    historical
20. 2024-09-10
    listed $51,409 Active
21. 2017-10-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,388 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,388 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,193
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$1,658
• Taxable income: $4,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $3,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plainview ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835070
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,146
• Composite: 32.85/100
• National rank: #5615
• State rank: #445 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plainview

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #393
• US rank: #8233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plainview, TX
• County: Hale County · 25,389 people
• City population: 25,389
• Metro: Plainview, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,389
• Household income: $47,255
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1015.0

Population outlook (Hale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,851 people
• By 2030: 29,158 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 25,681 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 22,420 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 15,857 · -48.6%
• By 2100: 10,500 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 29% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Hale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+48.4 2012: R+47.8 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.38%
• Current HPI: 127.9276
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Plainview, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $56,999 HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Listed $51,409 HARMLS
• 2017-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,388 · -13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.