Charlotte Plan · Sebastian, FL 32958

$357,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,338 sqft · SingleFamily · 312 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Larger covered entry
• Walk-in tile shower

Tags

• RECESSED TRUSS COVERED PORCH
• LARGER COVERED ENTRY
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN TILE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $357,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan; Model/plan name: Charlotte

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan home (Charlotte plan); Living area approximately 2,338

🏗️ New construction. The $357,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $453,572.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $358k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-784 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in FL, #1,421 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,975/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 646% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 312 days — a 12% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,509 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 312 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.41%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $453,572
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Judah Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,535 (+8%)	1mo	$515,000	$203	80
702 Carnation Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,447 (+5%)	3mo	$595,000	$243	76
915 Rose Arbor Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,265 (-3%)	5mo	$432,650	$191	62
955 George St	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,420 (+4%)	4mo	$449,990	$186	61
366 Faith Ter	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,265 (-3%)	3mo	$437,650	$193	54
980 George St	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,404 (+3%)	13mo	$389,000	$162	54
739 S Easy St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,192 (-6%)	2mo	$490,000	$224	50
575 Joy Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,090 (-11%)	10mo	$467,500	$224	50
734 Doctor Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,145 (-8%)	7mo	$495,000	$231	50
507 Wimbrow Dr	0.48mi	5/2.0	2,039 (-13%)	7mo	$395,000	$194	46
444 S Tulip Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,110 (-10%)	5mo	$369,900	$175	45
773 Wentworth St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,633 (+13%)	14mo	$389,900	$148	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-113,451
• Equity at exit: $67,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-119,300
• Equity at exit: $39,217

Cash invested: $127,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32958

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,379
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$567 /mo · $6,804/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $-784

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,968

Max offer price $340,095

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,393
• Closing costs: $13,607
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
486 Biscayne Ln Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1769	$2,250	$1.27	13d	1	0.47mi
810 Jamaica Ave Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$3,000	$1.62	13d	1	0.77mi
865 Beard Ave Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1934	$3,600	$1.86	21d	1	0.80mi
406 Easy St Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,100	$1.12	21d	1	1.06mi
1192 Croquet Ln Sebastian, FL	4.0	2.0	2012	$2,640	$1.31	13d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $357,990 Active 312 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $357,990 Active 311 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $357,990 Active 310 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $357,990 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $357,990 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $357,990 Active 306 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $357,990 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $357,990 Active 303 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $357,990 Active 302 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $357,990 Active 301 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $357,990 Active 300 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $357,990 Active 297 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,407
• − Property taxes: −$6,804
• − Insurance: −$2,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,856
• − Management: −$2,856
• − Depreciation: −$13,195
• Taxable loss: −$17,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,244
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sebastian

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #1421

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sebastian, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• City population: 30,023
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,023
• Household income: $66,840
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 646.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.85%
• Current HPI: 330.1691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.22%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B