4015 52nd Street Ct W · Bradenton, FL 34209

$259,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 977 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1961 7,501 sqft lot Est $224k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Priced to Sell! This inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath, with large den/bonus room home in West Bradenton features a NEW ROOF completed in November 2025, providing added peace of mind for years to come. The home offers a functional layout with key updates including a newer water heater, updated electrical panel, and regularly serviced HVAC system. Enjoy relaxed Florida living with a screened-in carport, a cozy stone fireplace, and a bright, sun-filled Florida room that flows out to a private rear patio and a large, fully fenced backyard, ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. Conveniently located just minutes from grocery stores, shopping, dining, schools

Key facts

• Florida room
• Newer water heater
• Screened-in carport

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL PANEL
• REGULARLY SERVICED HVAC SYSTEM
• SCREENED-IN CARPORT
• FLORIDA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RSF6; Total acreage: under 1/4 acre
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Home faces west; Homestead property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered screened patio/porch; Awnings; Vinyl fencing; Cleared lot; Sidewalks; Paved surfaces; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room and dining room combo; Family room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-134/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: H. S. Moody Elementary School (math 39% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 606 students, 73% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 510 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $260k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,196 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,733
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4015 52nd Street Ct W	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,097 (+12%)	0mo	$255,000	$232	79
5303 40th Ave W	0.07mi	2/2.0	927 (-5%)	9mo	$230,000	$248	77
5903 36th Avenue Cir W	0.52mi	2/2.0	937 (-4%)	3mo	$215,000	$229	63
6104 39th Ave W	0.56mi	2/2.0	937 (-4%)	3mo	$202,500	$216	60
4528 58th St W	0.58mi	2/2.0	994 (+2%)	11mo	$310,000	$312	57
3912 41st St	0.67mi	2/2.0	965 (-1%)	10mo	$214,000	$222	55
3605 60th St W	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,028 (+5%)	12mo	$190,000	$185	53
5901 36th Avenue Cir W	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,028 (+5%)	20mo	$219,000	$213	48
4504 57th St W	0.48mi	2/1.0	884 (-10%)	18mo	$320,000	$362	47
4211 35th Ave W	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,015 (+4%)	20mo	$207,000	$204	39
3906 40th St W	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,050 (+8%)	13mo	$260,000	$248	38
3703 39th St W	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,050 (+8%)	14mo	$155,000	$148	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-48,764
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-66,344
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34209

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 510
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,363/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,006

Max offer price $257,927

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4210 Ironwood Cir Unit 103J Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,800	$2.40	23d	1	0.13mi
4040 Ironwood Cir Unit 406F Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,675	$1.66	15d	1	0.21mi
4040 Ironwood Cir Unit 404F Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	11d	1	0.21mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 501A Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.5	840	$2,595	$3.09	23d	1	0.24mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 406 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	21d	1	0.24mi
4460 Ironwood Cir Unit 406 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	1d	1	0.24mi
4240 Ironwood Cir #404 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,495	$2.48	23d	1	0.28mi
4480 Ironwood Cir Unit 309 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,800	$3.00	23d	1	0.28mi
4480 Ironwood Cir Unit 213A Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,425	$2.38	14d	1	0.29mi
4118 59th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	756	$1,800	$2.38	15d	1	0.41mi
4802 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,950	$1.94	15d	15	0.43mi
4802 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,950	$1.94	3d	13	0.43mi
4550 47th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,800	$1.94	1d	27	0.44mi
4850 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	3d	2	0.47mi
4850 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	14d	3	0.47mi
5907 36th Ave Cir W #5907 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$2,800	$2.99	23d	1	0.50mi
4457 45th Ave W #211 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,950	$2.14	15d	1	0.58mi
4801 47th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,810	$1.78	1d	32	0.60mi
4116 62nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,650	$1.96	3d	1	0.61mi
4880 51st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1019	$1,527	$1.50	3d	11	0.62mi
5909 30th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	788	$1,670	$2.12	1d	6	0.71mi
4112 66th Street Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,960	$1.78	19d	1	0.75mi
4449 46th Ave W Unit 4449 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1110	$3,200	$2.88	23d	1	0.75mi
4325 40th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,675	$2.16	10d	9	0.76mi
4601 66th St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$2,065	$2.25	1d	24	0.81mi
4161 66th Street Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,800	$1.72	15d	1	0.82mi
4209 66th Street Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,900	$2.78	23d	1	0.82mi
5933 28th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,013	$2.13	1d	6	0.93mi
2926 63rd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	946	$2,100	$2.22	3d	1	0.94mi
2903 63rd St W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	693	$2,000	$2.89	3d	1	0.94mi
6711 45th Ave W Unit A Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	15d	1	1.02mi
586 Lakeside Dr Unit 586 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$3,200	$3.40	23d	1	1.11mi
4501 71st St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,680	$1.98	1d	28	1.17mi
6304 Pointe West Blvd Unit A309 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,795	$1.72	10d	1	1.24mi
184 Pineneedle Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,100	$2.23	23d	1	1.26mi
206 Lakewood Dr Unit 206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$2,700	$2.87	23d	1	1.28mi
6415 21st Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1150	$1,896	$1.65	3d	5	1.29mi
4148 53rd Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$2,550	$2.58	1d	1	1.44mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 1210 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,932	$1.80	3d	1	1.44mi
4148 53rd Ave W Unit 0314 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,967	$1.84	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $259,900 Active
3. 2025-10-25
   historical
4. 2025-10-15
   price $274,900
5. 2025-09-24
   status Active
6. 2025-09-17
   status Pending
7. 2025-08-21
   price $269,900
8. 2025-06-05
   price $279,900
9. 2025-04-07
   listed $289,900 Active
10. 2025-01-01
    historical
11. 2024-12-13
    price $299,000
12. 2024-07-13
    status Active
13. 2024-07-11
    status Active
14. 2024-07-03
    status Pending
15. 2024-06-30
    listed $299,900 Active
16. 2002-08-02
    soldstatus $86,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,363 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,157 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$794/yr (+$66/mo · 58.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$1,363
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$4,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,224
• Household income: $81,728
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -360.34%
• Current HPI: 320.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+199.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Listed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $274,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Listed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-30 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $86,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,363 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.