Wren Plan · Antioch, IL 60002

$450,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The family room, kitchen and dining room can be found on the first level of this new two-story home, arranged in a convenient and contemporary open floorplan. On the same level are a study and flex space to provide additional space that the whole household can enjoy. All four bedrooms are located upstairs, each with a walk-in closet. An unfinished basement allows for more room to expand.

Key facts

• Full-sized bathroom
• Owner's suite
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN MAIN LIVING AREA
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL-SIZED BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $450,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $470,951.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $451k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $451k).
• Recommended offer: $397k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#305 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chsd 117 (suburban): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #934 of 2,056 statewide, top 46%, 638 students, 0% FRL); Antioch Upper Grade School (math 27% / reading 33%, grade F, #246 of 665 statewide, top 38%, 902 students, 0% FRL); Antioch Comm High School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 1,309 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 124d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,602/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $396,871 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $470,951
• List price: $450,990
• Delta: -4.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1760 South Port Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+1%)	1mo	$534,590	$203	94
1768 South Port Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,630 (+1%)	4mo	$529,990	$202	93
1767 South Port Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,386 (-8%)	0mo	$463,000	$194	82
1764 South Port Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,386 (-8%)	1mo	$468,000	$196	82
1834 Tall Oaks Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,424 (-7%)	7mo	$469,900	$194	68
1821 Tall Oaks Dr	0.34mi	4/3.5	2,492 (-4%)	17mo	$460,000	$185	59
895 Timber Lake Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,825 (+8%)	10mo	$369,000	$131	47
1650 Natures Way	0.73mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,804 (+8%)	7mo	$489,990	$175	43
1012 Timber Lake Dr	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,483 (-5%)	17mo	$379,500	$153	40
954 Timber Lake Dr	0.60mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,869 (+10%)	17mo	$405,000	$141	32
1087 Waterview Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,255 (-14%)	12mo	$450,000	$200	28
900 Heartland Park Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (-14%)	12mo	$365,000	$164	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-51,969
• Equity at exit: $70,220

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-13,713
• Equity at exit: $40,719

Cash invested: $131,866 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $456,648 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 32 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 60002

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,602 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,470
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$589 /mo · $7,064/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$966
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,120

Max offer price $470,951

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $707	-5% $544	+0% $381	+5% $218	+10% $56
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $199	+0% $381	+5% $563	+10% $745
Rate	-1.0pp $618	-0.5pp $501	base $381	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,738
• Closing costs: $14,129
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1241 Neuway Ln Antioch, IL	4.0	2.5	2423	$4,210	$1.74	148d	1	0.09mi
1241 Neuway Ln Antioch, IL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	2179	$4,870	$2.23	112d	13	0.09mi
1241 Neuway Ln Antioch, IL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	2179	$4,870	$2.23	36d	12	0.09mi
945 Forestview Way Antioch, IL	4.0	2.5	2926	$3,900	$1.33	124d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $450,990 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $450,990 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $450,990 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $450,990 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $450,990 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $450,990 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $450,990 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $450,990 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $450,990 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $450,990 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $450,990 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $450,990 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $450,990 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $450,990 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $450,990 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $450,990 Active 223 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $450,990 Active 222 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $450,990 Active 221 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $450,990 Active 220 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $450,990 Active 219 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $450,990 Active 218 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $450,990 Active 217 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $450,990 Active 216 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    price $450,990 Active 215 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $448,990 Active 215 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $448,990 Active 214 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $448,990 Active 213 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $448,990 Active 212 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $448,990 Active 211 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $448,990 Active 210 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $498,990 Active 209 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $498,990 Active 208 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $498,990 Active 207 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $498,990 Active 206 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $498,990 Active 205 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $498,990 Active 204 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $498,990 Active 203 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $498,990 Active 202 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $498,990 Active 201 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $498,990 Active 200 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $498,990 Active 199 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $498,990 Active 198 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $498,990 Active 197 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $498,990 Active 196 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $498,990 Active 195 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $498,990 Active 194 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $498,990 Active 193 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $498,990 Active 192 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $498,990 Active 191 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $498,990 Active 190 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,381
• − Property taxes: −$7,064
• − Insurance: −$2,355
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,418
• − Management: −$4,418
• − Depreciation: −$13,700
• Taxable loss: −$3,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$746
• After-tax cash flow: $5,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would be an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor updates can make the interior more inviting and attractive. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oakland Elementary School F IL #829/2,056 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Antioch Upper Grade School F IL #246/665 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Antioch Comm High School F IL #147/693 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chsd 117
• NCES district ID: 1703870
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,993
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4836
• State rank: #135 of 620 in IL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #5985

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, IL
• County: Lake · 700,217 people
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
• Population (ZIP): 24,396
• Household income: $109,047
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.22%
• Current HPI: 221.5754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $526,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Listed $524,990 Zillow