4138 Balboa Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$280,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 3,657 sqft lot $147/sqft · 23% below area Est $364k · 23% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Lennar Urban Villas “Allen II” Plan with Stone Elevation in Meridiana! This stunning two-story Allen floor plan offers a charming front porch and a warm entry foyer that leads into an open-concept kitchen, family room, and casual dining area. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious primary suite complete with an en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet. The second floor also features a secondary bedroom with its own walk-in closet, as well as access to a full bathroom shared with an additional secondary bedroom. Don’t miss the chance to make this beautiful home your Home Sweet Home!

Key facts

• 3,657 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-872 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (38.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,090 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,900
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -23.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4210 Kinsey St	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,961 (+3%)	5mo	$380,000	$194	79
4131 Kinsey St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-8%)	11mo	$334,990	$191	70
4706 Vaughan St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,901 (+0%)	11mo	$389,990	$205	66
3738 Amoroso Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,743 (-8%)	10mo	$330,000	$189	62
4622 Vaughan Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,785 (-6%)	9mo	$419,990	$235	59
4138 Shackleton Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,844 (-3%)	13mo	$319,000	$173	58
5010 Country Meadows Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,930 (+2%)	7mo	$380,000	$197	57
4715 Vaughan Way	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,992 (+5%)	10mo	$434,900	$218	52
4603 Vaughan Way	0.40mi	3/3.0	2,140 (+13%)	10mo	$479,990	$224	50
4627 Vaughan Way	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,051 (+8%)	12mo	$410,990	$200	49
4618 Vaughan Way	0.45mi	3/3.0	2,140 (+13%)	13mo	$467,415	$218	45
4823 Vaughan Way	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,177 (+15%)	3mo	$399,900	$184	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-106,584
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.38×
• Total profit: $-186,294
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $384,875 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,486 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$717 /mo · $8,604/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,591

Max offer price $172,090

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-714	-5% $-793	+0% $-872	+5% $-952	+10% $-1,031
Rent	-10% $-1,069	-5% $-971	+0% $-872	+5% $-774	+10% $-676
Rate	-1.0pp $-731	-0.5pp $-801	base $-872	+0.5pp $-945	+1.0pp $-1,019

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	93d	1	0.10mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	56d	1	0.13mi
10526 Cabot Trl Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	1927	$2,500	$1.30	7d	1	0.21mi
3734 Bach St Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,800	$1.24	93d	1	0.22mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	62d	1	0.26mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	93d	1	0.44mi
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	23d	1	1.07mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	73d	1	1.19mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,186	$1.26	30d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-24
   days on market $280,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $280,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $280,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-02-18
    listed $280,000 Active 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Discover the Lennar Urban Villas “Allen II” Plan with Stone Elevation in Meridiana! This stunning two-story Allen floor plan offers a charming front porch and a warm entry foyer that leads into an open-concept kitchen, family room, and casual dining area. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious primary suite complete with an en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet. The second floor also features a secondary bedroom with its own walk-in closet, as well as access to a full bathroom shared with an additional secondary bedroom. Don’t miss the chance to make this beautiful home your Home Sweet Home!

19. 2026-02-18
    historical

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Discover the Lennar Urban Villas “Allen II” Plan with Stone Elevation in Meridiana! This stunning two-story Allen floor plan offers a charming front porch and a warm entry foyer that leads into an open-concept kitchen, family room, and casual dining area. Upstairs, you’ll find a spacious primary suite complete with an en-suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet. The second floor also features a secondary bedroom with its own walk-in closet, as well as access to a full bathroom shared with an additional secondary bedroom. Don’t miss the chance to make this beautiful home your Home Sweet Home!

20. 2025-12-06
    listed $359,000 Active
21. 2025-05-16
    historical
22. 2025-05-07
    price $314,000
23. 2025-04-28
    historical $2,300
24. 2025-04-28
    listed $330,000 Active
25. 2025-03-21
    listed $2,300
26. 2024-04-20
    historical $2,349
27. 2024-04-02
    listed $2,349
28. 2024-04-01
    historical $2,500
29. 2024-03-06
    listed $2,500
30. 2024-02-24
    historical $2,300
31. 2024-01-31
    price $2,300
32. 2024-01-28
    price $2,390
33. 2024-01-21
    price $2,290
34. 2024-01-02
    price $2,390
35. 2023-12-19
    listed $2,490
36. 2023-01-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,604 · $717/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,604 · $717/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$8,604
• − Insurance: −$6,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$15,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,645
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,500–$28,500 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Meridiana is ready for immediate occupancy with minor cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both landscape — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11145.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed $359,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $314,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-04-20 Rental Removed $2,349 HARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Listed for Rent $2,349 HARMLS
• 2024-04-01 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-02-24 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-01-28 Price Changed $2,390 HARMLS
• 2024-01-21 Price Changed $2,290 HARMLS
• 2024-01-02 Price Changed $2,390 HARMLS
• 2023-12-19 Listed for Rent $2,490 HARMLS
• 2023-01-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+89.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,604 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.