5619 Bayshore Rd #163 · Memphis, FL 34221

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 252 Days on market

Built 1980 4,025 sqft lot Est $113k · 14% over $188/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience easy Florida living in the land-owned 55+ community of Terra Ceia Manor! This well-maintained home offers both comfort and charm inside and out and is turnkey! Step into a spacious living area with beautiful laminate flooring, filled with natural light from the home’s recently updated windows. The layout features two nicely sized bedrooms with spacious walk-in closets, providing plenty of room for relaxation or visiting guests. A newer roof offers peace of mind, while the home’s thoughtful updates ensure it’s move-in ready. You’ll find a large enclosed sitting area—perfect for enjoying Florida’s breezy afternoons—and a convenient storage

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Updated windows
• Newer roof

Tags

• UPDATED WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF
• ENCLOSED SITTING AREA
• STORAGE SHED
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Heading North on 41, turn left on Bayshore Rd, left into Terra Ceia Manor, continue on 1st St to home on left
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Turnkey (furnished); Total annual fees reported as $2,256
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $188 (includes structure maintenance, sewer, trash, water); Association approval required; Buyer approval required; Clubhouse; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Community pool; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; East-facing; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area about 2,190 sq ft
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $129k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.13%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,896
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5619 Bayshore Rd #164	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,224 (+6%)	2mo	$120,000	$98	82
5619 Bayshore Rd #142	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	2mo	$125,000	$118	75
420 49th St E #48	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	2mo	$110,000	$85	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,124
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $29,721
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,321/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$188
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $582	+0% $546	+5% $509	+10% $473
Rent	-10% $388	-5% $467	+0% $546	+5% $624	+10% $703
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $578	base $546	+0.5pp $512	+1.0pp $478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	24d	1	0.69mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	24d	1	0.87mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $188 · $2,256/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 246 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 241 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $129,000
16. 2026-04-02
    price $149,000
17. 2026-01-19
    price $160,000
18. 2025-10-09
    listed $165,000 Active
19. 2014-04-21
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,321 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,321 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,321
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − HOA: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,882
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,172
• After-tax cash flow: $5,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+84.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,321 · -7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.