5402 Highway 100 · Bon Aqua Junction, TN 37098

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 989 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1961 9,583 sqft lot Est $275k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated Brick Home with new Windows, HVAC/Ductwork, Gutters, Granite countertops, Stainless Dishwasher, Hot Water Heater, Interior doors/trim. Updated electrical and Plumbing. New bathroom, Laminate and tile throughout. Home is conveniently located for quick commute to all surrounding areas. Could also be easily rezoned commercial! Rare opportunity!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Newer flooring
• Newer cabinetry

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• NEWER FLOORING
• NEWER PAINT
• NEWER CABINETRY
• NEWER COUNTER TOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 989 square feet; Lot about 0.22 acres (approx. 75 x 129 irregular); Tax annual amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: No covered spaces or carport listed; No total parking spaces listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen — approx. 12x13; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level) — approx. 11x13 and 10x12
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Bon Aqua Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Hickman Elementary (446 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 468 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,942
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9012 Old Highway 46	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+2%)	12mo	$280,000	$278	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $118,407
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $334,594
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37098

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $331	+0% $278	+5% $226	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $209	+0% $278	+5% $348	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $325	base $278	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-01
   price $185,000
4. 2026-02-24
   listed $195,000 Active
5. 2024-09-25
   soldstatus $260,000
6. 2023-08-06
   historical 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   Completely renovated Brick Home with new Windows, HVAC/Ductwork, Gutters, Granite countertops, Stainless Dishwasher, Hot Water Heater, Interior doors/trim. Updated electrical and Plumbing. New bathroom, Laminate and tile throughout. Home is conveniently located for quick commute to all surrounding areas. Could also be easily rezoned commercial! Rare opportunity!

7. 2023-07-18
   status Active 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   Completely renovated Brick Home with new Windows, HVAC/Ductwork, Gutters, Granite countertops, Stainless Dishwasher, Hot Water Heater, Interior doors/trim. Updated electrical and Plumbing. New bathroom, Laminate and tile throughout. Home is conveniently located for quick commute to all surrounding areas. Could also be easily rezoned commercial! Rare opportunity!

8. 2023-07-18
   price $244,999 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   Completely renovated Brick Home with new Windows, HVAC/Ductwork, Gutters, Granite countertops, Stainless Dishwasher, Hot Water Heater, Interior doors/trim. Updated electrical and Plumbing. New bathroom, Laminate and tile throughout. Home is conveniently located for quick commute to all surrounding areas. Could also be easily rezoned commercial! Rare opportunity!

9. 2023-06-19
   historical Active Under Contract 364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (364 chars)

   Completely renovated Brick Home with new Windows, HVAC/Ductwork, Gutters, Granite countertops, Stainless Dishwasher, Hot Water Heater, Interior doors/trim. Updated electrical and Plumbing. New bathroom, Laminate and tile throughout. Home is conveniently located for quick commute to all surrounding areas. Could also be easily rezoned commercial! Rare opportunity!

10. 2023-05-08
    listed $249,999 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Completely renovated Brick Home with new Windows, HVAC/Ductwork, Gutters, Granite countertops, Stainless Dishwasher, Hot Water Heater, Interior doors/trim. Updated electrical and Plumbing. New bathroom, Laminate and tile throughout. Home is conveniently located for quick commute to all surrounding areas. Could also be easily rezoned commercial! Rare opportunity!

11. 2023-04-10
    historical
12. 2023-04-10
    status Active
13. 2023-02-10
    price $239,899
14. 2023-02-07
    price $249,899
15. 2022-12-06
    listed $249,999 Active
16. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus $80,000
17. 2021-11-22
    price $95,000
18. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed
19. 2021-11-15
    status Pending
20. 2021-08-30
    status Active
21. 2021-08-30
    price $109,000
22. 2021-08-06
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2021-06-28
    listed $125,000 Active
24. 2013-04-24
    historical
25. 2012-10-23
    listed $69,000
26. 2012-09-02
    historical
27. 2012-03-08
    listed $69,000
28. 2005-04-01
    soldstatus $42,000
29. 2002-05-08
    soldstatus $39,000
30. 1998-02-20
    soldstatus $44,000
31. 1991-12-28
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 75.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$70
• After-tax cash flow: $3,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 4701860
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,457
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8966
• State rank: #107 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bon Aqua Junction

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #14050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bon Aqua Junction, TN
• Population (ZIP): 5,933

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,337 people
• By 2030: 22,650 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 21,310 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 19,972 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 17,073 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 14,630 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 1% Danish 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+27.2 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 36.09%
• Current HPI: 364.5408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+537.9% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $185,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed $195,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-06 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-18 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-18 Price Changed $244,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-19 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-08 Listed $249,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-10 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-10 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-10 Price Changed $239,899 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-07 Price Changed $249,899 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-06 Listed $249,999 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-22 Price Changed $95,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-22 Sold (MLS) $80,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-15 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-30 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-30 Price Changed $109,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-28 Listed $125,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-24 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-23 Listed $69,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-02 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-08 Listed $69,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1998-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $749 · +32.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.