1500 S Fir St · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$14,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1969 7,405 sqft lot $8/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, with 2 living areas, kitchen/dining combo, laundry room, located at end of dead end street. * * Agents please READ agent/confidential remarks section for additional information, showing and offer instructions prior to showing the property!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $759 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 67.0% vs local median 9.0% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pine Bluff School District (urban): math 6% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #236 of 238 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $103 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,099 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 67.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 216.79%
• DSCR: 10.65
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $34,853
• List price: $14,999
• Delta: -56.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1307 S Holly St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,952 (+8%)	13mo	$39,900	$20	65
2707 W 11th St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,749 (-3%)	21mo	$35,000	$20	56
3307 W 15th A & B Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,898 (+5%)	16mo	$25,000	$13	50
1612 W 15th Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-2%)	23mo	$14,000	$8	47
1704 S Cedar	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-12%)	7mo	$43,000	$27	44
1215 S Bay St	0.75mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,824 (+1%)	20mo	$112,000	$61	42
813 S Gum St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,542 (-15%)	16mo	$35,000	$23	40
1508 W 18th Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,611 (-11%)	11mo	$15,000	$9	36
3310 Rose	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,674 (-7%)	22mo	$13,636	$8	29
1513 W 18th	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-13%)	21mo	$15,000	$9	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.93×
• Total profit: $45,924
• Equity at exit: $2,236

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.37×
• Total profit: $102,338
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $159

Max offer price $14,999

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 S Beech St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	2.0	1346	$850	$0.63	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $14,999 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,999 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,999 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,999 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,999 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $14,999 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $14,999 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,999 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $14,999 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $14,999 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $14,999 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $14,999 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $14,999 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $14,999 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,999 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $14,999 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $24,999 New Listing 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Large 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, with 2 living areas, kitchen/dining combo, laundry room, located at end of dead end street. * * Agents please READ agent/confidential remarks section for additional information, showing and offer instructions prior to showing the property!

18. 2016-06-17
    status Under Contract 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE! Estimated monthly payments of $660-$710. This 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home has been recently remodeled and features new carpet and interior is freshly painted. The home also has nice hard wood flooring. The kitchen includes new appliances, refurbished cabinets with lots of cabinet space and new counter tops. The house has a large yard and is great for landscaping and entertainment. Call today to learn more about our financing program!

19. 2016-06-17
    soldstatus $64,500 Sold 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE! Estimated monthly payments of $660-$710. This 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home has been recently remodeled and features new carpet and interior is freshly painted. The home also has nice hard wood flooring. The kitchen includes new appliances, refurbished cabinets with lots of cabinet space and new counter tops. The house has a large yard and is great for landscaping and entertainment. Call today to learn more about our financing program!

20. 2016-04-06
    status Back on Market 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE! Estimated monthly payments of $660-$710. This 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home has been recently remodeled and features new carpet and interior is freshly painted. The home also has nice hard wood flooring. The kitchen includes new appliances, refurbished cabinets with lots of cabinet space and new counter tops. The house has a large yard and is great for landscaping and entertainment. Call today to learn more about our financing program!

21. 2016-04-01
    status Under Contract 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE! Estimated monthly payments of $660-$710. This 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home has been recently remodeled and features new carpet and interior is freshly painted. The home also has nice hard wood flooring. The kitchen includes new appliances, refurbished cabinets with lots of cabinet space and new counter tops. The house has a large yard and is great for landscaping and entertainment. Call today to learn more about our financing program!

22. 2016-02-25
    listed $64,500 New Listing 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE! Estimated monthly payments of $660-$710. This 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home has been recently remodeled and features new carpet and interior is freshly painted. The home also has nice hard wood flooring. The kitchen includes new appliances, refurbished cabinets with lots of cabinet space and new counter tops. The house has a large yard and is great for landscaping and entertainment. Call today to learn more about our financing program!

23. 2015-09-28
    soldstatus $25,000
24. 2015-09-18
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold
25. 2015-08-21
    status Under Contract
26. 2015-06-03
    listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,075
• − Management: −$1,075
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $9,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,267
• After-tax cash flow: $6,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bluff School District
• NCES district ID: 0500026
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $32,374
• Composite: 5.86/100
• National rank: #10014
• State rank: #236 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $24,999 CARMLS
• 2016-06-17 Pending — CARMLS
• 2016-06-17 Sold (MLS) $64,500 CARMLS
• 2016-04-06 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2016-04-01 Pending — CARMLS
• 2016-02-25 Listed $64,500 CARMLS
• 2015-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-18 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CARMLS
• 2015-08-21 Pending — CARMLS
• 2015-06-03 Listed $29,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+33.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.