53 Douglas St #16 · Sugarmill Woods, FL 34446

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Condo public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1984 $311/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy a Florida carefree lifestyle here as your condo association takes care of most everything! You can put your own decorating ideas into updating this 2 bedroom 2.5 bath condo. It has a convenient one car garage with plenty of great parking spaces. The $300 monthly condo fee includes: cable, Wi-Fi, building maintenance and insurance, pest control for the building, grounds maintenance, trash and recycle. Each bedroom has its own bath so it is like having 2 Masters. Easy to show!

Key facts

• $311 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1984

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities include clubhouse, golf, restaurant, street lights, and tennis courts
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual and monthly fees (association covers cable TV, insurance, grounds and structure maintenance, pest control, security, and trash); Association fee listed as $139 annually and $300 monthly (derived monthly approximately $11.58)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 total parking space; 1-car attached garage with garage door opener; Private paved driveway; RV and boat access/parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Security service
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential condominium; Faces southwest
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as a condominium (year built not specified)
• Exterior features: Wooded, level lot; Paved road frontage on a county road; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; High-speed internet; Smoke detectors; Security service
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.0% in Sugarmill Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lecanto Primary School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 820 students, 63% FRL); Lecanto Middle School (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 809 students, 55% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $95k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.82%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $10,274
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $46,613
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34446

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $553/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$311
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $517	-5% $484	+0% $451	+5% $419	+10% $386
Rent	-10% $305	-5% $378	+0% $451	+5% $524	+10% $597
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $481	base $451	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Golfview Dr Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1507	$2,000	$1.33	21d	1	0.15mi
23 Dogwood Dr Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1492	$2,200	$1.47	21d	1	0.29mi
17 Dogwood Dr Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	21d	1	0.30mi
51 Golfview Ct Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1553	$1,900	$1.22	21d	1	0.36mi
17 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	0.42mi
5 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.45mi
5 Black Cherry Dr Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,600	$1.40	21d	1	0.48mi
57 Chinaberry Cir Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,575	$1.39	21d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $311 · $3,732/yr
• Likely covers: trashinternetcablelandscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $115,000 Active
3. 2010-01-11
   soldstatus $95,000
4. 2000-03-24
   soldstatus $46,500
5. 1987-10-01
   soldstatus $58,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$401/yr (+$33/mo · 72.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$553
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − HOA: −$3,732
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $3,975
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$954
• After-tax cash flow: $4,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sugarmill Woods

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #20184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugarmill Woods, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,102
• Household income: $58,802
• Rent vs Own: 6.9% rent · 93.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 121.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.11%
• Current HPI: 277.2576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+95.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — RACC
• 2026-04-29 Listed $115,000 RACC
• 2010-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $553 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.