12900 Walden, Unite 219b Rd Unit 219B · Conroe, TX 77356

$90,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 613 sqft · Condo · 72 Days on market

Built 1980 Good condition $147/sqft · 14% below area Est $104k · 14% under $300/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TURN-KEY, SINGLE-STORY CONDO WITH GOLF COURSE VIEWS from your patio– NO STAIRS! SHORT-TERM RENTALS ALLOWED (AIRBNB/VRBO)! Welcome to Eighteenth at Walden in Montgomery, TX—this beautifully remodeled, one-story condo near Lake Conroe is perfect as a primary home, weekend retreat, or income-producing investment. Features include granite countertops, updated appliances, kitchen island, luxury vinyl flooring and 2 sleek electric fireplaces. Spacious bath. Enjoy a private patio. Low-maintenance, lock-and-leave living. Water, sewer and trash provided. Weekly lawn services. Dog walking stations. Community swimming pools. Lap pool. Baseball field. Fitness & Racquet ctr. Laundry building. Club house can be reserved for private parties. Insurance covers buildings for storm damage, etc. Located in Walden with access to marina, pools, fitness center, tennis, and golf. Most of the Furniture can stay!!

Key facts

• $300 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($451/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,130
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -13.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-15,546
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-23,386
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	2d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashelectricpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $90,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $100,000 Active 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    TURN-KEY, SINGLE-STORY CONDO WITH GOLF COURSE VIEWS from your patio– NO STAIRS! SHORT-TERM RENTALS ALLOWED (AIRBNB/VRBO)! Welcome to Eighteenth at Walden in Montgomery, TX—this beautifully remodeled, one-story condo near Lake Conroe is perfect as a primary home, weekend retreat, or income-producing investment. Features include granite countertops, updated appliances, kitchen island, luxury vinyl flooring and 2 sleek electric fireplaces. Spacious bath. Enjoy a private patio. Low-maintenance, lock-and-leave living. Water, sewer and trash provided. Weekly lawn services. Dog walking stations. Community swimming pools. Lap pool. Baseball field. Fitness & Racquet ctr. Laundry building. Club house can be reserved for private parties. Insurance covers buildings for storm damage, etc. Located in Walden with access to marina, pools, fitness center, tennis, and golf. Most of the Furniture can stay!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$196
• After-tax cash flow: $647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This turn-key, single-story condo is in good condition with golf course views and low-maintenance living. It offers a private patio and is perfect for primary homes, weekend retreats, or income-producing investments.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the living area — Luxury vinyl flooring is durable and can add value to the property.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more renters and buyers.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more tenants and buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and value.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A reliable HVAC system is essential for comfort and can attract more tenants and buyers.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more tenants and buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the living area — Luxury vinyl flooring is durable and can add value to the property. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more renters and buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the property's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A reliable HVAC system is essential for comfort and can attract more tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more tenants and buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $100,000 HARMLS