Clayton 69 JV Rum Runner Plan · Sebring, FL 33872

$133,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Manufactured · 103 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.3

Listing remarks

Welcome home to the exclusively new Rum Runner all age manufactured home community in Sebring, Florida. Buy or rent a new home in our community conveniently located near Lake Jackson! These homes showcase high-quality, durable features, like open concept, 3-bedroom floor plans, spacious eat-in kitchens, and covered front porches. Step outside into the community and find a range of amenities. Our community provides on-site management and maintenance, a community clubhouse, swimming pool, fitness center, shuffleboard, pickeball court, and bocceball. Rum Runner is located under 2 hours south of Orlando and the same distance west of Tampa.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Pickleball court
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• SHUFFLEBOARD
• PICKLEBALL COURT

🏗️ New construction. The $133,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $148,790.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hill-Gustat Middle School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 705 students, 63% FRL); Sebring High School (math 32% / reading 48%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,809 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1210 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,305 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,790
• List price: $133,900
• Delta: -10.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2713 Roger St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-6%)	6mo	$120,000	$104	68
2860 Louis St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-10%)	3mo	$125,000	$113	65
31187 Fernway St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-7%)	17mo	$149,000	$131	65
3035 Roger St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	0mo	$25,000	$19	62
1507 Caribbean Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-3%)	7mo	$155,000	$130	59
1528 Caribbean Rd	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+2%)	11mo	$154,900	$124	58
2841 John L St	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-12%)	12mo	$149,900	$139	54
1523 Caribbean Rd	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+11%)	6mo	$150,000	$110	44
1516 Caribbean Rd	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-12%)	6mo	$133,500	$124	41
1543 St Thomas Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	17mo	$97,000	$72	40
2109 Caribbean Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	17mo	$159,900	$119	40
2209 Bahama Rd W	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	20mo	$130,000	$97	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-31,153
• Equity at exit: $22,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-40,472
• Equity at exit: $12,865

Cash invested: $41,661 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 43.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $149,247 ($121/sqft)
• Median days on market: 182 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33872

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1210
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$780
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,232/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $136,383

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-34	+0% $-86	+5% $-137	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-133	+0% $-86	+5% $-39	+10% $9
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-48	base $-86	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,198
• Closing costs: $4,464
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2545 Brunns Rd Sebring, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1016	$1,600	$1.57	0d	1	0.03mi
1929 Theodore St Sebring, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,000	$1.23	51d	1	0.19mi
1926 Theadore St Sebring, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,000	$1.23	51d	1	0.21mi
31247 Fernway St Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	10d	1	0.24mi
31247 Fernway St Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	26d	1	0.24mi
31327 Fernway St Sebring, FL	3.0	1.0	1015	$1,100	$1.08	10d	1	0.26mi
31327 Fernway St Sebring, FL	3.0	1.0	1015	$1,275	$1.26	26d	1	0.26mi
2440 Hammock Rd Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	720	$975	$1.35	51d	1	0.29mi
3210 Astoria Ave Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,245	$1.38	10d	1	0.40mi
3217 Jacklin Ave Sebring, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	10d	1	0.41mi
266 Meadowlark Ave Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	10d	1	0.43mi
266 Meadowlark Ave Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	2d	1	0.43mi
2310 Andalusia St Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,245	$1.38	10d	1	0.44mi
3315 Astoria Ave Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	2d	1	0.45mi
2115 Puffin St Unit 2117 Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1003	$1,597	$1.59	51d	1	0.65mi
1940 Alan St Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,800	$1.42	37d	1	0.65mi
1940 Alan St Unit 1940 1 Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,850	$1.49	37d	1	0.65mi
1825 Puffin St Unit 1825 Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$1,647	$1.64	9d	1	0.71mi
357 US Highway 27 S Sebring, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,150	$1.20	9d	1	0.71mi
1813 Puffin St Unit 1813 Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$1,597	$1.59	10d	1	0.72mi
1813 Puffin St Unit 1813 Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1005	$1,597	$1.59	51d	1	0.72mi
317 US Highway 27 S Sebring, FL	2.0	1.5	968	$1,150	$1.19	9d	1	0.72mi
3510 Cormorant Point Dr Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	1220	$1,850	$1.52	10d	1	0.76mi
3906 Mandarin Rd Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	957	$1,325	$1.38	23d	1	0.86mi
1419 Prospect Dr Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,720	$1.40	22d	1	1.25mi
4523 Elson Ave Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,700	$1.41	10d	1	1.27mi
4410 Lake Haven Blvd Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,000	$1.41	50d	1	1.27mi
4163 Hammock Rd Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,549	$1.15	0d	1	1.29mi
4412 Lafayette Ave Sebring, FL	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,500	$1.04	10d	1	1.37mi
4409 Grass Ave Sebring, FL	2.0	1.5	791	$1,300	$1.64	0d	1	1.37mi
4409 Grass Ave Sebring, FL	2.0	1.5	791	$1,300	$1.64	5d	1	1.37mi
103 Whatley Blvd Sebring, FL	2.0	1.5	850	$1,350	$1.59	1d	1	1.39mi
4602 Lafayette Ave Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	1343	$1,395	$1.04	10d	1	1.47mi
4602 Lafayette Ave Sebring, FL	2.0	2.0	1343	$1,395	$1.04	1d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActivePlan inventory type
• Financial info: List price $133,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning
• Home design: Plan: Clayton 69 JV Rum RunnerSingle-family plan in Sebring, FL
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,230 (internal measurement)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-07-09
   days on market $133,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-07-08
   days on market $133,900 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-07-07
   days on market $133,900 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-07-06
   days on market $133,900 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-07-05
   days on market $133,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-07-04
   days on market $133,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-07-03
   days on market $133,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-07-02
   days on market $133,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-07-01
   days on market $133,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-30
    days on market $133,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-29
    days on market $133,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-28
    days on market $133,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-28
    days on market $133,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-27
    days on market $133,900 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-06-26
    days on market $133,900 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-06-23
    days on market $133,900 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-06-21
    days on market $133,900 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-06-19
    days on market $133,900 Active 83 DOM
19. 2026-06-18
    days on market $133,900 Active 82 DOM
20. 2026-06-17
    days on market $133,900 Active 81 DOM
21. 2026-06-16
    days on market $133,900 Active 80 DOM
22. 2026-06-15
    days on market $133,900 Active 79 DOM
23. 2026-06-14
    days on market $133,900 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-06-10
    days on market $133,900 Active 74 DOM
25. 2026-06-09
    days on market $133,900 Active 73 DOM
26. 2026-06-08
    days on market $133,900 Active 72 DOM
27. 2026-06-07
    days on market $133,900 Active 71 DOM
28. 2026-06-02
    days on market $133,900 Active 66 DOM
29. 2026-06-01
    days on market $133,900 Active 65 DOM
30. 2026-05-31
    days on market $133,900 Active 64 DOM
31. 2026-05-30
    days on market $133,900 Active 63 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,335
• − Property taxes: −$2,232
• − Insurance: −$744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,328
• Taxable loss: −$3,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$867
• After-tax cash flow: $-162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodlawn Elementary School D+ FL #1,070/2,144 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 Middle Hill-Gustat Middle School C FL #232/571 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Sebring High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Sebring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #618
• US rank: #11992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 99,674 people
• City population: 50,797
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,746
• Household income: $69,578
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

---

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.20%
• Current HPI: 225.3761
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActivePlan inventory type
• Financial info: List price $133,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning
• Home design: Plan: Clayton 69 JV Rum RunnerSingle-family plan in Sebring, FL
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,230 (internal measurement)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central air conditioning