8951 Merseyside Ave · Jacksonville, FL 32219

$268,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2015 0.25 ac lot Est $301k · 11% under $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8951 Merseyside Ave, a home that exudes modern elegance and comfort. The heart of the home, the kitchen, boasts a stylish island and stainless steel appliances, creating a sleek and contemporary feel. The primary bathroom is a haven of luxury with double sinks, offering ample space for your morning routine. The primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet, providing ample storage for your wardrobe. The home has been recently updated with fresh interior paint, adding a clean and bright atmosphere. New flooring throughout the home enhances the overall aesthetic and ensures durability. The addition of new appliances further elevates the convenience and functionality of this be

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Walk-in closet
• New flooring

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE SINKS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Association fee: $385.75 annually; Community park amenity

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Quarter-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Other built-in appliance(s)
• Laundry & utility: Utilities connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-397/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grasp Academy (math 18% / reading 14%, grade F, #2,130 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 271 students, 52% FRL); Jean Ribault Middle School (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 679 students, 78% FRL); Jean Ribault High School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,385 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,542 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,672
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8273 Hawkes Mdw Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,003 (+8%)	1mo	$325,990	$163	60
10056 Lancashire Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,770 (-5%)	4mo	$282,000	$159	58
8770 Oxfordshire Ave E	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,705 (-8%)	7mo	$277,000	$162	58
7109 Paddock Point Ct	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,003 (+8%)	8mo	$316,753	$158	56
8249 Hawkes Meadow Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (-8%)	3mo	$308,990	$181	55
8738 Lancashire Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,134 (+15%)	9mo	$295,000	$138	51
8326 Hawkes Meadow Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,997 (+8%)	8mo	$322,990	$162	50
7134 Hawkes Bend St	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,933 (+4%)	10mo	$308,000	$159	50
8368 Hawkes Meadow Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,003 (+8%)	7mo	$345,990	$173	49
7211 Hawkes Bend St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,707 (-8%)	9mo	$305,000	$179	47
7400 Sycamore St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,759 (-5%)	12mo	$350,000	$199	47
10084 Garden Lake Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,088 (+12%)	7mo	$319,000	$153	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,941
• Equity at exit: $39,960

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-72,700
• Equity at exit: $23,172

Cash invested: $75,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32219

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,431/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,217

Max offer price $262,151

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $43	+0% $-33	+5% $-109	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-119	+0% $-33	+5% $53	+10% $139
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $35	base $-33	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,000
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7294 Gateway Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,800	$1.16	25d	1	0.22mi
8768 Merseyside Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,839	$1.14	12d	1	0.27mi
7217 Nottinghamshire Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,895	$1.15	25d	1	0.38mi
7218 Oxfordshire Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	2198	$2,095	$0.95	25d	1	0.39mi
7223 Hawkes Bend St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1997	$2,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.67mi
10136 Lancashire Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	2114	$1,995	$0.94	25d	1	0.68mi
7053 Civic Club Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,180	$1.23	6d	1	1.12mi
7843 Greatford Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,779	$1.20	23d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $268,000
3. 2026-03-19
   price $273,000
4. 2026-03-05
   price $278,000
5. 2026-02-10
   listed $288,000 Active
6. 2026-01-31
   soldstatus $245,900
7. 2015-06-11
   soldstatus $162,235

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,431 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,431 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$2,431
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$5,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,302
• Household income: $72,184
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.90%
• Current HPI: 263.8901
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+65.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $268,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $273,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $278,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $288,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $245,900 Public Records
• 2015-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $162,235 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,431 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.