924 Lincoln Ave E #56 · Tenino, WA 98589

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1987 $86/sqft · 64% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is in an ideal location! Tenino Estates is walking distance to schools, restaurants and shopping. The property features an excellent layout with the primary bedroom (with attached ensuite bathroom) on one side of the home, while the other side has two bedrooms and a main hall bath. Bedrooms are separated by a large living room with plenty of space for everyone! The dining area is a nice size, offering ample space for a large dining table. Outside you will find a yard shed to lock up your toys and tools. There is plenty of room for a garden or outdoor activities.

Key facts

• Room for a garden
• Yard shed
• Built 1987

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• YARD SHED
• ROOM FOR A GARDEN
• ROOM FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 2.8% in Tenino — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#218 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Tenino School District (rural): math 42% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #135 of 291 in WA (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.10%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,000
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -64.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1104 Lincoln Ave E Unit D8	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+11%)	18mo	$18,000	$11	61
625 Garfield Ave E	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	22mo	$85,000	$66	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $50,550
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $136,170
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98589

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $1,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
447 Sussex Ave W Tenino, WA	3.0	1.0	1402	$2,450	$1.75	13d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $129,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $139,999
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $150,000 Active
17. 2025-05-06
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed
18. 2025-04-02
    status Pending
19. 2025-03-14
    price $110,000
20. 2025-02-16
    price $120,000
21. 2025-01-31
    status Active
22. 2025-01-31
    historical
23. 2025-01-29
    listed $125,000 Active
24. 2024-10-29
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
25. 2024-10-04
    status Pending
26. 2024-10-02
    listed $25,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,273 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 40.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,352
• − Management: −$2,352
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $12,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,900
• After-tax cash flow: $10,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tenino School District
• NCES district ID: 5308820
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,918
• Composite: 46.11/100
• National rank: #5471
• State rank: #135 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tenino

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6234

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tenino, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,296

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.48%
• Current HPI: 364.8084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+460.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $139,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-16 Price Changed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Listed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-29 Sold (MLS) $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-02 Listed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $909 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.