1340 Ryan Rd · Fall Branch, TN 37656

$39,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1920 1.70 ac lot ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

1189sqft Rehab Rancher on 1.7 Mostly wooded acres. Fall Branch is between Greeneville, Kingsport and Johnson City for all your shopping and medical needs. For eating out, there are many restaurants to choose from. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE

Key facts

• Rehab rancher
• Fall branch location
• Mostly wooded acres

Tags

• REHAB RANCHER
• MOSTLY WOODED ACRES
• FALL BRANCH LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner, rolling slope, wooded lot on approximately 1.7 acres; Paved county road frontage

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Listed as a fixer
• Exterior features: Covered front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Ceramic tile flooring; Living room fireplace with metal surround
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.6% vs local median 2.8% in Fall Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#154 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greene County (rural): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #83 of 139 in TN (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 333 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.69%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $38,756
• Equity at exit: $23,482

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.23×
• Total profit: $92,154
• Equity at exit: $41,216

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37656

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $236/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $470

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $462	+0% $451	+5% $439	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $368	-5% $409	+0% $451	+5% $492	+10% $533
Rate	-1.0pp $471	-0.5pp $461	base $451	+0.5pp $440	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,999 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,999 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,999 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,999 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,999 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,999 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,999 Active 277 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,999 Active 276 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,999 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,999 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,999 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,999 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,999 Active 266 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,999 Active 265 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,999 Active 264 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,999 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $45,900
18. 2026-04-13
    listed $49,000 Active
19. 2026-03-11
    historical
20. 2026-03-11
    historical
21. 2026-01-09
    listed $68,000 Active
22. 2025-11-03
    price $68,000
23. 2025-11-03
    price $68,000
24. 2025-11-03
    price $68,000
25. 2025-07-07
    price $79,900
26. 2025-07-07
    price $79,900
27. 2025-07-07
    price $79,900
28. 2025-06-25
    listed $99,000 Active
29. 2025-06-24
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $236 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$48/yr (+$4/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$236
• − Insurance: −$1,702
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$999
• − Management: −$999
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $5,144
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,235
• After-tax cash flow: $4,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County
• NCES district ID: 4701470
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,517
• Composite: 21.3/100
• National rank: #8388
• State rank: #83 of 139 in TN

Livability — Fall Branch

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #13417

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,566

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,624 people
• By 2030: 68,114 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 66,167 · -3.6%
• By 2050: 63,038 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 55,274 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 45,527 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.7) · D 16.6% · R 82.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -65.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.7 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+61.0 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.33%
• Current HPI: 302.8551
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-53.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $45,900 LAAR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $49,000 LAAR
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $68,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $68,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $68,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $68,000 LAAR
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $79,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $79,900 LAAR
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $79,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $99,000 LAAR
• 2025-06-24 Listed $99,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $236 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.