4778 Katrina Dr · Haines City, FL 33844

$286,240

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2025 5,662 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story Celeste is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner’s suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms. Crosswinds is an amenity-rich masterplan community of new single-family homes, located in Haines City. Amenities include: a resort style pool, clubhouse, dog park, walking trails, basketball court and soccer field. Close to major roads, parks, Advent Health Heart of Florida, restaurants, shopping.

Key facts

• Single story
• Owner's suite
• Attached patio

Tags

• SINGLE STORY
• OPEN PLAN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• AMENITY RICH COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,976 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-60,078
• Equity at exit: $42,679

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-81,302
• Equity at exit: $24,749

Cash invested: $80,147 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,501
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,294/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,567

Max offer price $264,805

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,560
• Closing costs: $8,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	23d	1	0.03mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	23d	1	0.04mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	23d	1	0.06mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	3d	1	0.07mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	23d	1	0.08mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	23d	1	0.08mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	3d	1	0.09mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.10mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	14d	1	0.10mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.22mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	3d	1	0.39mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	14d	1	0.41mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	23d	1	0.44mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	23d	1	0.44mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	3d	1	0.45mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	23d	1	0.46mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	23d	1	0.48mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	23d	1	0.53mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	10d	1	0.72mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	10d	1	0.84mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	23d	1	0.87mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	11d	1	0.88mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.89mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	11d	1	0.91mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	11d	1	0.91mi
600 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2267	$2,800	$1.24	10d	1	0.92mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.92mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	23d	1	0.96mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	19d	1	0.96mi
1138 Foreshore Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	23d	1	0.98mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	23d	1	0.98mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	14d	1	1.00mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	19d	1	1.00mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	3d	1	1.03mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	1.10mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	23d	1	1.11mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	19d	1	1.13mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	23d	1	1.13mi
219 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,450	$1.01	23d	1	1.15mi
851 Folklore Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2290	$2,195	$0.96	3d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-21
   price $286,240
3. 2026-01-20
   price $285,490
4. 2026-01-08
   price $283,240
5. 2026-01-06
   price $303,240
6. 2026-01-02
   price $323,240
7. 2025-12-29
   price $322,490
8. 2025-12-22
   price $319,490
9. 2025-12-19
   price $316,490
10. 2025-12-17
    price $321,490
11. 2025-12-12
    listed $335,490 Active
12. 2025-10-23
    soldstatus $372,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,034
• − Property taxes: −$4,294
• − Insurance: −$1,431
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,285
• − Management: −$2,285
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,327
• Taxable loss: −$6,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,607
• After-tax cash flow: $-170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $286,240 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $285,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $283,240 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $303,240 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $323,240 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $322,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $319,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $316,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $321,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listed $335,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $372,100 Public Records