1913 Windsor · Mansfield, TX 76084

$499,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 232 Days on market

Built 2025 8,712 sqft lot Est $501k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21025828 - Built by J Houston Homes - Ready Now! ~ NEW JOHN HOUSTON HOME IN SOMERSET. This beautifully appointed 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom, and Game Room smart home offers comfort and convenience. As you step inside, you're greeted by a cozy wood-burning fireplace and large windows, making the living room feel spacious and inviting. The kitchen features a 36 gas cooktop, cabinets to the ceiling for extra storage, a wood-wrapped island, and a trash rollout. The primary suite is a true retreat, with it's generous bedroom layout, dual vanity with a shower, freestanding tub, and a spacious primary closet. You can find modern lightning and hardware throughout the home, making it feel elevated

Key facts

• Dual vanity
• 36 gas cooktop
• Wood wrapped island

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• 36 GAS COOKTOP
• CABINETS TO THE CEILING
• WOOD WRAPPED ISLAND
• TRASH ROLLOUT
• DUAL VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-968 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (35.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.8% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annette Perry El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 522 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $324,245 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.30%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $500,550
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1913 Windsor	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,350 (0%)	1mo	$499,900	$213	99
2114 Redding Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,253 (-4%)	1mo	$493,990	$219	74
2113 Ash Ct	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,591 (+10%)	6mo	$509,990	$197	68
2208 Birch St	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,367 (+1%)	2mo	$599,990	$253	64
2504 Veranda Way	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,524 (+7%)	1mo	$459,900	$182	63
2216 Wexley Dr	0.08mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,657 (+13%)	5mo	$499,990	$188	62
2415 Melrose Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,595 (+10%)	7mo	$537,990	$207	60
2608 Acton Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,253 (-4%)	1mo	$522,990	$232	55
2215 Birch St	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,230 (-5%)	6mo	$524,990	$235	52
2702 Vista Pkwy	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,476 (+5%)	1mo	$520,000	$210	50
2508 Lakeway Ln	0.74mi	3/3.0	2,527 (+8%)	2mo	$554,990	$220	49
1603 Birch St	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,678 (+14%)	2mo	$515,000	$192	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $120,906
• Equity at exit: $356,938

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $392,971
• Equity at exit: $687,771

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $-968

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,468

Max offer price $359,806

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Birch St Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2593	$3,399	$1.31	24d	1	0.65mi
2614 High Bluff Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2852	$3,600	$1.26	12d	1	0.85mi
2309 Lannister St Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.0	2174	$3,300	$1.52	43d	1	1.01mi
1702 Swayback Ln Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.5	2694	$3,900	$1.45	1d	1	1.22mi
1824 Buckeye Ln Mansfield, TX	4.0	2.5	2230	$3,500	$1.57	1d	1	1.23mi
1505 Misty Pasture Way Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2428	$3,650	$1.50	24d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: trashgas

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-02
   price $499,900
3. 2026-01-31
   price $509,900
4. 2026-01-08
   price $499,900
5. 2025-12-19
   price $509,900
6. 2025-12-04
   price $514,900
7. 2025-11-13
   price $519,900
8. 2025-10-30
   price $524,900
9. 2025-10-16
   price $529,900
10. 2025-09-18
    price $534,900
11. 2025-08-07
    listed $539,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,113
• − Management: −$3,113
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$20,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,982
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mansfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828920
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,934
• Composite: 45.82/100
• National rank: #2558
• State rank: #125 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mansfield

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #5833

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mansfield, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 82,625
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $509,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $509,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $514,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $519,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $524,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $529,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $534,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $539,990 NTREIS