981 Montecito Dr · Pahrump, NV 89048

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 2018 Est $181k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Inexpensive opportunity awaits with this 2018 model in the highly desired Desert Greens community! This 55+ community offers plenty of great amenities including golf, pool, spa, and bocci ball court. 2BR 2BA and easy to maintain! This home has a land lease of $425/month.

Key facts

• Built 2018

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $140,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$181,440) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,642 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.06%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
356 Saint Andrew St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+2%)	6mo	$170,000	$165	81
410 Bel Air Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,053 (+4%)	0mo	$218,000	$207	80
211 Montecito Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	2mo	$165,000	$172	78
359 Saint Andrew St	0.12mi	2/2.0	995 (-1%)	13mo	$140,000	$141	77
251 Montecito Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,063 (+6%)	3mo	$179,000	$168	74
440 Brentwood Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+1%)	12mo	$226,000	$222	74
581 Montecito Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	4mo	$190,000	$180	72
361 Montecito Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,064 (+6%)	5mo	$187,500	$176	71
416 Bel Air Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	12mo	$205,000	$194	69
310 Lafayette St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	940 (-7%)	4mo	$243,000	$259	57
300 Montecito Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,149 (+14%)	8mo	$200,000	$174	56
640 Alaska Way	0.53mi	2/2.0	920 (-9%)	10mo	$210,000	$228	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-12,561
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,000
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 71 Landlord-Friendly
• State Nevada: 71 Landlord-Friendly · R+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; Clark County (Vegas) had pandemic backlogs; generally landlord-friendly but courts slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 89048

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,316 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $988/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
551 Piltz Rd Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	891	$1,450	$1.63	43d	1	1.17mi
1111 Sixshooter Ave Unit 3C Pahrump, NV	2.0	2.0	910	$1,150	$1.26	43d	1	1.18mi
1081 Quartzite Ave #2 Pahrump, NV	2.0	2.0	984	$1,245	$1.27	43d	1	1.22mi
452 Comstock St Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1211	$1,250	$1.03	43d	1	1.24mi
1080 S Potro Ave #3 Pahrump, NV	2.0	2.0	984	$1,245	$1.27	43d	1	1.25mi
1480 W Irons St Pahrump, NV	2.0	2.0	980	$1,600	$1.63	43d	1	1.27mi
1420 Ogallala St #2 Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	1.35mi
1401 Ogallala St Unit 4 Pahrump, NV	3.0	2.0	1009	$1,350	$1.34	43d	1	1.38mi
1041 Marne Ct Unit 4 Pahrump, NV	2.0	2.0	901	$1,235	$1.37	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $140,000
2. 2024-03-19
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Inexpensive opportunity awaits with this 2018 model in the highly desired Desert Greens community! This 55+ community offers plenty of great amenities including golf, pool, spa, and bocci ball court. 2BR 2BA and easy to maintain! This home has a land lease of $425/month.

3. 2024-02-29
   historical Active Under Contract 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Inexpensive opportunity awaits with this 2018 model in the highly desired Desert Greens community! This 55+ community offers plenty of great amenities including golf, pool, spa, and bocci ball court. 2BR 2BA and easy to maintain! This home has a land lease of $425/month.

4. 2024-02-13
   listed $119,900 Active 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Inexpensive opportunity awaits with this 2018 model in the highly desired Desert Greens community! This 55+ community offers plenty of great amenities including golf, pool, spa, and bocci ball court. 2BR 2BA and easy to maintain! This home has a land lease of $425/month.

5. 2024-02-06
   historical
6. 2024-01-08
   price $124,900
7. 2023-12-20
   listed $130,000 Active
8. 2023-04-21
   historical
9. 2023-04-05
   price $127,500
10. 2023-03-01
    listed $137,500 Active
11. 2018-11-01
    soldstatus $116,900 Sold
12. 2018-08-23
    historical Contingent Offer
13. 2018-06-20
    status Active
14. 2018-06-19
    historical Contingent Offer
15. 2018-06-15
    listed $116,990 Active
16. 2016-05-04
    soldstatus $970,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$988
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$80
• After-tax cash flow: $2,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nye County School District
• NCES district ID: 3200360
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,447
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #8110
• State rank: #16 of 17 in NV

Livability — Pahrump

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #9226

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pahrump, NV
• County: Nye County · 47,491 people
• City population: 47,491
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• Population (ZIP): 26,486
• Household income: $61,367
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Nye County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,727 people
• By 2030: 38,812 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 33,952 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 29,393 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 21,122 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 14,400 · -64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nye

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.0% · R 70.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+42.0 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.52%
• Current HPI: 277.4486
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Metro: Pahrump, NV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NV)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Hotels / Casinos	3	$36B

Price history

-85.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-03-19 Sold (MLS) $115,000 GLVAR
• 2024-02-29 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2024-02-13 Listed $119,900 GLVAR
• 2024-02-06 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $124,900 GLVAR
• 2023-12-20 Listed $130,000 GLVAR
• 2023-04-21 Listing Removed — GLVAR
• 2023-04-05 Price Changed $127,500 GLVAR
• 2023-03-01 Listed $137,500 GLVAR
• 2018-11-01 Sold (MLS) $116,900 GLVAR
• 2018-08-23 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2018-06-20 Relisted — GLVAR
• 2018-06-19 Contingent — GLVAR
• 2018-06-15 Listed $116,990 GLVAR
• 2016-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $970,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $988 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.