Bayberry Plan · DeSoto, TX 75115

$468,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,820 sqft · SingleFamily · 821 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Classic Series Bayberry floor plan is a two-story home with four bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms. Features of this plan include a covered porch, formal dining or study, large family room, open kitchen with custom cabinets and island, a primary suite with a walk-in closet and garden tub, and an upstairs game room. Contact us or visit our model home for more information about building this plan.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Upstairs game room
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN WITH ISLAND
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $468,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $552,827.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $469k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (43.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (43.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.3% in DeSoto — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#589 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Duncanville ISD (suburban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #711 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 821 days — a 12% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,597 (43.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 821 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.47%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $552,827
• List price: $468,990
• Delta: -15.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
938 Vista Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,783 (-1%)	6mo	$475,000	$171	88
2100 Homestead Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,799 (-1%)	6mo	$499,000	$178	88
936 Homestead Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,828 (+0%)	4mo	$478,000	$169	86
933 Homestead Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,773 (-2%)	6mo	$510,000	$184	83
2041 Picnic Crk	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,521 (-11%)	9mo	$485,000	$192	63
936 Waddle Ln	0.26mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,521 (-11%)	7mo	$499,381	$198	58
1854 Masters Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0	3,000 (+6%)	1mo	$539,000	$180	57
2018 Mammoth Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,521 (-11%)	5mo	$495,541	$197	52
1817 Masters Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,528 (-10%)	5mo	$465,000	$184	52
827 Astaire Ave	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,547 (-10%)	11mo	$339,900	$133	41
840 Alamo Ct	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,459 (-13%)	15mo	$497,000	$202	41
1860 Masters Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,196 (+13%)	11mo	$589,999	$185	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-207,964
• Equity at exit: $82,428

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.28×
• Total profit: $-353,324
• Equity at exit: $47,798

Cash invested: $154,791 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $502,490 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 821 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75115

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 563
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,636 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,899
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$691 /mo · $8,292/yr
• Insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-1,738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,836

Max offer price $301,329

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,356	-5% $-1,547	+0% $-1,738	+5% $-1,929	+10% $-2,120
Rent	-10% $-1,946	-5% $-1,842	+0% $-1,738	+5% $-1,634	+10% $-1,530
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,460	-0.5pp $-1,597	base $-1,738	+0.5pp $-1,881	+1.0pp $-2,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,207
• Closing costs: $16,585
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1007 Lamar Ave Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.5	2106	$2,640	$1.25	4d	1	0.71mi
907 Saint George Pl Desoto, TX	4.0	2.5	2600	$3,500	$1.35	9d	1	1.01mi
1444 Pinnacle Peak Dr DeSoto, TX	3.0	2.0	3336	$1,975	$0.59	8d	1	1.31mi
1424 Cobblestone Dr Desoto, TX	5.0	3.0	2667	$8,950	$3.36	71d	1	1.43mi
1423 Cassandra Cir Desoto, TX	3.0	3.5	2367	$2,500	$1.06	13d	1	1.45mi
407 Hillcroft Cir Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2002	$2,275	$1.14	37d	1	1.47mi
407 Hillcroft Cir Duncanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2002	$2,275	$1.14	56d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $468,990 Active 821 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $468,990 Active 819 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $468,990 Active 818 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $468,990 Active 817 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $468,990 Active 816 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $468,990 Active 813 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $468,990 Active 811 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $468,990 Active 810 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $468,990 Active 808 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $468,990 Active 806 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $468,990 Active 805 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $468,990 Active 804 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $468,990 Active 803 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $468,990 Active 802 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $468,990 Active 800 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $468,990 Active 799 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $468,990 Active 798 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $468,990 Active 797 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $468,990 Active 796 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $468,990 Active 795 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $468,990 Active 794 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $468,990 Active 793 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $468,990 Active 792 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $468,990 Active 791 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $468,990 Active 789 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $468,990 Active 788 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $468,990 Active 787 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $468,990 Active 786 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $468,990 Active 785 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $468,990 Active 784 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $468,990 Active 783 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $468,990 Active 782 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $468,990 Active 781 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $468,990 Active 780 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $468,990 Active 779 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $468,990 Active 778 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $468,990 Active 776 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $468,990 Active 774 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $468,990 Active 773 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $468,990 Active 770 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $468,990 Active 769 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $468,990 Active 768 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $468,990 Active 767 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $468,990 Active 765 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $468,990 Active 764 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $468,990 Active 761 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $468,990 Active 760 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $468,990 Active 759 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $468,990 Active 756 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $468,990 Active 755 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,967
• − Property taxes: −$8,292
• − Insurance: −$2,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,531
• − Management: −$2,531
• − Depreciation: −$16,082
• Taxable loss: −$31,535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,568
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in DeSoto, TX, is in good condition with a neutral and modern aesthetic. It has a good exterior, interior walls, and flooring. The kitchen and bathrooms are modern and functional. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior, replace the gutters, update the flooring, kitchen appliances, and bathrooms.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Update bathrooms — Modernizes the home and improves aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

High Duncanville H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duncanville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,979
• Composite: 21.71/100
• National rank: #8270
• State rank: #711 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — DeSoto

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #11236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: DeSoto, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 56,211
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 56,211
• Household income: $82,782
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 28% of renters

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Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.49%
• Current HPI: 272.1565
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.60%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-05-10 Listed $468,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-09 Listed $488,990 Zillow