523 & 525 Shady Oaks Harbor Rd · Liverpool, TX 77511

$115,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 1969 Poor condition 0.33 ac lot $79/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WATERFRONT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY – TWO PROPERTIES INCLUDED! Rare chance to purchase 523 & 525 Shady Oaks in Alvin, TX, sold together as a package. Situated along the scenic Corner Bayou this unique property features water access with a private dock and boat launch. Both homes are elevated approximately 25 feet on heavy-duty steel piers and beams. Investor special—both properties require full renovation and are ideal for a flip, rental, or redevelopment project. 525 Shady Oaks was previously rented month-to-month for $1,150. Tax IDs: 7521-0046-001 & 7521-0046-000. Use caution when accessing the property, especially stairs and deck areas. Enter at your own risk. Appointment required. Buyer to independently verify all measurements and property details.

Key facts

• Elevated on piers
• Private dock
• Boat launch

Tags

• WATER ACCESS
• PRIVATE DOCK
• BOAT LAUNCH
• ELEVATED ON PIERS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $115,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$271,106) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#707 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 589 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.32%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,106
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -57.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74 Lazy Oak Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+4%)	24mo	$250,000	$165	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $12,535
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $46,032
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77511

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 589
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $115,000 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    WATERFRONT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY – TWO PROPERTIES INCLUDED! Rare chance to purchase 523 & 525 Shady Oaks in Alvin, TX, sold together as a package. Situated along the scenic Corner Bayou this unique property features water access with a private dock and boat launch. Both homes are elevated approximately 25 feet on heavy-duty steel piers and beams. Investor special—both properties require full renovation and are ideal for a flip, rental, or redevelopment project. 525 Shady Oaks was previously rented month-to-month for $1,150. Tax IDs: 7521-0046-001 & 7521-0046-000. Use caution when accessing the property, especially stairs and deck areas. Enter at your own risk. Appointment required. Buyer to independently verify all measurements and property details.

16. 2026-04-13
    listed $130,000 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    WATERFRONT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY – TWO PROPERTIES INCLUDED! Rare chance to purchase 523 & 525 Shady Oaks in Alvin, TX, sold together as a package. Situated along the scenic Corner Bayou this unique property features water access with a private dock and boat launch. Both homes are elevated approximately 25 feet on heavy-duty steel piers and beams. Investor special—both properties require full renovation and are ideal for a flip, rental, or redevelopment project. 525 Shady Oaks was previously rented month-to-month for $1,150. Tax IDs: 7521-0046-001 & 7521-0046-000. Use caution when accessing the property, especially stairs and deck areas. Enter at your own risk. Appointment required. Buyer to independently verify all measurements and property details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,596
• − Management: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,667
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $5,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and repair, including exterior siding, roof, flooring, interior walls, HVAC, and landscaping. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Severe weathering and damage
• Major Roof — Exposed beams and structural issues
• Major Flooring — Exposed beams and structural issues
• Major Interior walls/paint — Exposed beams and structural issues
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Exposed beams and structural issues
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and general disrepair

Value-add opportunities

• Both Exterior siding and roof repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both Interior wall and paint repair — Enhances interior aesthetics and value
• Both HVAC and mechanical upgrades — Improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances overall property value and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Severe weathering and damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Exposed beams and structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Exposed beams and structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · Exposed beams and structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Exposed beams and structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and general disrepair	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Exterior siding and roof repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both Interior wall and paint repair — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical upgrades — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances overall property value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liverpool

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #707
• US rank: #13166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,892
• Household income: $74,939
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 923.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 21% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.72%
• Current HPI: 278.5745
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $130,000 HARMLS