Is 523 & 525 Shady Oaks Harbor Rd in Alvin, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it B- with a 12.5% cap rate and $593/mo modeled cash flow at a $115,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 523 & 525 Shady Oaks Harbor Rd?

The modeled cap rate is 12.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,757/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

B- Composite 68.61

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +30.0/30.0
1% rule +10.0/10.0
DSCR +10.0/10.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +3.0/5.0
Condition / age +1.0/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$115,000

523 & 525 Shady Oaks Harbor Rd · Alvin, TX 77511

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily · 140 Days on market

Built 1969 Poor condition 0.33 ac lot 4-car garage $79/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 12% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

WATERFRONT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY – TWO PROPERTIES INCLUDED! Rare chance to purchase 523 & 525 Shady Oaks in Alvin, TX, sold together as a package. Situated along the scenic Corner Bayou this unique property features water access with a private dock and boat launch. Both homes are elevated approximately 25 feet on heavy-duty steel piers and beams. Investor special—both properties require full renovation and are ideal for a flip, rental, or redevelopment project. 525 Shady Oaks was previously rented month-to-month for $1,150. Tax IDs: 7521-0046-001 & 7521-0046-000. Use caution when accessing the property, especially stairs and deck areas. Enter at your own risk.

Key facts

Elevated on piers
Private dock
Boat launch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.0% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 948 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.53% ✓
Cap rate: 12.48%
Cash-on-cash: 22.11%
DSCR: 1.98
GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $270,223
List price: $115,000
Delta: -57.44%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
69 Briar Oak Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,809 (+24%)	1mo	$379,000	$210	66
50 Lazy Oak Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,791 (+23%)	11mo	$275,000	$154	53
8921 Fresno Ave	1.16mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-7%)	8mo	$189,000	$140	42
5830 Pine Tree Trl	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	9mo	$375,000	$239	41
118 County Road 932a/elm	1.24mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-12%)	1mo	$164,000	$128	40
6819 Meadowlark Dr	1.39mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+7%)	14mo	$249,900	$160	38
8802 Los Robles Ave	0.90mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-17%)	0mo	$220,000	$181	36
1429 County Road 192	1.25mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+23%)	2mo	$315,000	$176	34
8702 Los Robles Ave	0.78mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-11%)	13mo	$115,000	$89	31
310 Pino Ave	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-21%)	8mo	$150,000	$130	30
302 Pino Ave	1.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+15%)	6mo	$279,900	$167	26
1206 County Road 192	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+15%)	13mo	$215,000	$128	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 13.6%
Equity multiple: 1.53×
Total profit: $17,208
Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

IRR: 21.5%
Equity multiple: 2.73×
Total profit: $55,831
Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77511

Home prices YoY: -18.6%
Rents YoY: 1.9%
Active inventory: 948
Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,757 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$603
Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
Insurance: −$48
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
Net cashflow: $593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $673	-5% $633	+0% $593	+5% $554	+10% $514
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $524	+0% $593	+5% $663	+10% $732
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $623	base $593	+0.5pp $564	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $28,750
Closing costs: $3,450
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Seller disclosure available
Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

Parking: Attached or detached 4-car garageAdditional parkingBoat parking available
Utilities: Water and sewer information not specifiedElectric service (implied by heating/cooling)
Home design: Residential propertyHas a view
Construction: Built in 1969Aluminum siding and cement sidingComposition roof
Exterior features: Waterfront property with riverfront and pierViews

Interior

Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorTwo additional bedrooms on the first floorFourth bedroom on the first floor
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Family room on the first floorTotal of 4 rooms

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $115,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $115,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $115,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $115,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $115,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $115,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $115,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $115,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $115,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $115,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $115,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $115,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $115,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $115,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $115,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $115,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $115,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $115,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $115,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $115,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $115,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $115,000 Active 116 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $115,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $115,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $115,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $115,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-10-03

days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $115,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-10-01

statusdays on market $115,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $115,000 Pending 101 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $115,000 Pending 100 DOM
2026-07-21

statusdays on market $115,000 Pending 99 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $115,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $115,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $115,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $115,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $115,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $115,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $115,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $115,000 Active 89 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,085
− Mortgage interest: −$6,442
− Property taxes: −$1,725
− Insurance: −$575
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
− Management: −$1,687
− Depreciation: −$3,345
Taxable income: $5,624

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,350
After-tax cash flow: $5,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $72,900–$131,220 screening

This property requires extensive renovation and repair, including exterior siding, roof, flooring, interior walls, HVAC, and landscaping. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

Major Exterior siding — Severe weathering and damage
Major Roof — Exposed beams and structural issues
Major Flooring — Exposed beams and structural issues
Major Interior walls/paint — Exposed beams and structural issues
Major HVAC/mechanicals — Exposed beams and structural issues
Major Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and general disrepair

Value-add opportunities

Both Exterior siding and roof repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
Both Interior wall and paint repair — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
Both HVAC and mechanical upgrades — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances overall property value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Alvin

Score: 65/100
State rank: #704
US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 51,892
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 51,892
Household income: $74,939
Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 21% Black 5% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -63.72%
Current HPI: 278.5745
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-04 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
2026-04-13 Listed $130,000 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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