28050 Cr 316 County Road · Urbana, MO 65767

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1998 1.16 ac lot $53/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 54% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for a weekend retreat or a place to call home while at the lake, this could be the one. This manufactured home sits on a little over an acre. There is a boat ramp just down the road and the road leads right to the lake. Perfect for a hunting/fishing cabin. There is even a shop to store the toys while you are away. Check this one out before it is gone!! Priced to sell! Home needs repairs and is sold "AS IS". With a little work this could be a great place to gather at the lake.

Key facts

• 1.16 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $459 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.0% in Urbana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#629 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickory County R-I (rural): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #8 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.29%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,900
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -63.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $49,363
• Equity at exit: $42,303

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.70×
• Total profit: $121,930
• Equity at exit: $77,990

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65767

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $366/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $496	-5% $478	+0% $459	+5% $441	+10% $423
Rent	-10% $374	-5% $416	+0% $459	+5% $502	+10% $545
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $476	base $459	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    price $65,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    If you are looking for a weekend retreat or a place to call home while at the lake, this could be the one. This manufactured home sits on a little over an acre. There is a boat ramp just down the road and the road leads right to the lake. Perfect for a hunting/fishing cabin. There is even a shop to store the toys while you are away. Check this one out before it is gone!! Priced to sell! Home needs repairs and is sold "AS IS". With a little work this could be a great place to gather at the lake.

19. 2026-03-04
    price $75,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    If you are looking for a weekend retreat or a place to call home while at the lake, this could be the one. This manufactured home sits on a little over an acre. There is a boat ramp just down the road and the road leads right to the lake. Perfect for a hunting/fishing cabin. There is even a shop to store the toys while you are away. Check this one out before it is gone!! Priced to sell! Home needs repairs and is sold "AS IS". With a little work this could be a great place to gather at the lake.

20. 2026-02-15
    listed $85,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    If you are looking for a weekend retreat or a place to call home while at the lake, this could be the one. This manufactured home sits on a little over an acre. There is a boat ramp just down the road and the road leads right to the lake. Perfect for a hunting/fishing cabin. There is even a shop to store the toys while you are away. Check this one out before it is gone!! Priced to sell! Home needs repairs and is sold "AS IS". With a little work this could be a great place to gather at the lake.

21. 2025-09-26
    price $105,000
22. 2025-05-13
    price $115,000
23. 2025-04-17
    price $125,000
24. 2025-03-31
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $366 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $630 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 72.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$366
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $4,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickory County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914320
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,125
• Composite: 54.03/100
• National rank: #1393
• State rank: #8 of 324 in MO

Livability — Urbana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #629
• US rank: #21576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,860

Population outlook (Hickory County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,206 people
• By 2030: 7,690 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 6,780 · -17.4%
• By 2050: 6,076 · -26.0%
• By 2075: 5,088 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 4,489 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Iranian 9% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickory

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Current HPI: 256.3794
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-53.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $65,000 WCAR
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $75,000 WCAR
• 2026-02-15 Listed $85,000 WCAR
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $105,000 SOMO
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $115,000 SOMO
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $125,000 SOMO
• 2025-03-31 Listed $140,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $366 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.