2202 Carl St · Big Spring, TX 79720

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1957 0.77 ac lot $83/sqft · 46% below area Est $260k · 46% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME IN FORSAN SCHOOLS - Never listed in the MLS, this 1 owner home sits on almost 1 acre and is the most affordable house in the Forsan ISD! Country feel with City amenities, large covered patio waiting for entertaining or quiet relaxation enjoying the huge back yard. Bring the whole family and all of pets too!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Huge back yard
• 0.77 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• HUGE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($580/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#948 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Forsan ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #259 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 266 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 69 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howard County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,815
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -40.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-19,535
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,746
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79720

• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,151/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3304 West St Big Spring, TX	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,119	$0.74	3d	1	0.67mi
801 W Marcy Dr Big Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1276	$1,166	$0.91	13d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,500 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,500 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,500 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,500 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,500 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,500 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,500 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,500 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 535-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,500 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,500 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,500 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,500 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,500 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,500 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    historical Active Under Contract 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME IN FORSAN SCHOOLS - Never listed in the MLS, this 1 owner home sits on almost 1 acre and is the most affordable house in the Forsan ISD! Country feel with City amenities, large covered patio waiting for entertaining or quiet relaxation enjoying the huge back yard. Bring the whole family and all of pets too!

18. 2026-05-08
    price $155,500 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME IN FORSAN SCHOOLS - Never listed in the MLS, this 1 owner home sits on almost 1 acre and is the most affordable house in the Forsan ISD! Country feel with City amenities, large covered patio waiting for entertaining or quiet relaxation enjoying the huge back yard. Bring the whole family and all of pets too!

19. 2026-04-16
    price $165,500 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME IN FORSAN SCHOOLS - Never listed in the MLS, this 1 owner home sits on almost 1 acre and is the most affordable house in the Forsan ISD! Country feel with City amenities, large covered patio waiting for entertaining or quiet relaxation enjoying the huge back yard. Bring the whole family and all of pets too!

20. 2026-02-18
    price $175,500 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME IN FORSAN SCHOOLS - Never listed in the MLS, this 1 owner home sits on almost 1 acre and is the most affordable house in the Forsan ISD! Country feel with City amenities, large covered patio waiting for entertaining or quiet relaxation enjoying the huge back yard. Bring the whole family and all of pets too!

21. 2025-12-12
    listed $185,500 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME IN FORSAN SCHOOLS - Never listed in the MLS, this 1 owner home sits on almost 1 acre and is the most affordable house in the Forsan ISD! Country feel with City amenities, large covered patio waiting for entertaining or quiet relaxation enjoying the huge back yard. Bring the whole family and all of pets too!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,151 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,151 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,151
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$405
• After-tax cash flow: $984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819620
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $72,975
• Composite: 38.74/100
• National rank: #4128
• State rank: #259 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Spring

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #948
• US rank: #16886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Spring, TX
• County: Howard County · 29,936 people
• City population: 29,936
• Metro: Big Spring, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,936
• Household income: $68,785
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 638.0

Population outlook (Howard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,396 people
• By 2030: 46,792 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 54,096 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 61,707 · +42.2%
• By 2075: 79,809 · +83.9%
• By 2100: 87,385 · +101.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 45% Two or more races 17% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Howard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+56.0 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.13%
• Current HPI: 140.8159
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Big Spring, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $155,500 PBBOR
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $165,500 PBBOR
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $175,500 PBBOR
• 2025-12-12 Listed $185,500 PBBOR

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,151 · +17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.