415 Millman Dr · Ferguson, MO 63135

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 5,950 sqft lot Est $108k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1950-built single-family residence features 3 bedrooms, 1 centralized bathroom, and a functional 906-square-foot main level footprint. Built in 1950, gleaming original hardwood flooring runs beneath the primary living spaces, leading to an eat-in kitchen layout equipped with solid cabinetry. Below, a partially finished basement supplies versatile bonus space alongside secondary utility and storage zones. Complete with an attached one-car garage for protected parking, the home sits on a manageable lot within a quiet, established 63135 neighborhood pocket, situated less than a mile from Griffith Elementary and nearby local community parks.

Key facts

• Manageable lot
• 5,950 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• EAT-IN KITCHEN LAYOUT
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• ATTACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• MANAGEABLE LOT
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family residence; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 19; Lot size about 0.1366 acres
• Financial info: No investor or cash flow details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (garage faces front) — 1 garage space, 1 total parking space
• Security: No specific security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; House structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with public records reporting 906 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Front porch; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility appliance details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lee Hamilton Elementary (math 5% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,026 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 278 students, 99% FRL); Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $95k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $94,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.88%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,814
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Superior Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	900 (-1%)	3mo	$139,000	$154	89
404 Ballman Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	892 (-2%)	4mo	$99,900	$112	85
435 N Clay Ave	0.22mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (+7%)	3mo	$155,000	$159	68
418 Millman Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,027 (+13%)	6mo	$68,600	$67	66
514 La Motte Ln	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-6%)	5mo	$60,000	$71	66
613 Plantmore Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+11%)	4mo	$119,900	$119	59
315 Coppinger Dr	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (+14%)	5mo	$84,900	$82	56
227 Meadowcrest Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	960 (+6%)	3mo	$129,900	$135	53
1006 Highmont Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	960 (+6%)	4mo	$109,900	$114	53
941 Highmont Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-7%)	3mo	$105,900	$126	49
914 Highmont Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-10%)	2mo	$92,400	$113	46
57 Forestwood Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+14%)	6mo	$148,800	$144	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $21,363
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $89,702
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63135

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $793

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $489	+0% $462	+5% $436	+10% $409
Rent	-10% $353	-5% $408	+0% $462	+5% $517	+10% $571
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $487	base $462	+0.5pp $438	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 Millman Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	17d	1	0.06mi
415 Ames Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,400	$1.72	44d	1	0.15mi
650 Robert Ave Ferguson, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,224	$1.50	44d	1	0.18mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	18d	1	0.25mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	44d	1	0.31mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	44d	1	0.37mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	44d	1	0.37mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	24d	1	0.72mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	44d	1	0.75mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	24d	1	0.79mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	44d	1	0.80mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	15d	1	0.92mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	8d	1	0.94mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	0.96mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	24d	1	0.96mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	8d	1	1.04mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	44d	1	1.04mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	8d	1	1.05mi
222 Henquin Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,050	$1.29	18d	1	1.06mi
60 Mayme Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,285	$1.34	44d	1	1.12mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	24d	1	1.13mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	44d	1	1.13mi
910 Disco Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	924	$1,260	$1.36	17d	1	1.17mi
6156 Wulff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	960	$1,425	$1.48	11d	1	1.17mi
24 Vierling Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,290	$1.52	8d	1	1.17mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	24d	1	1.20mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	13d	1	1.21mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	13d	1	1.22mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	1.22mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	44d	1	1.23mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,400	$1.49	24d	1	1.25mi
6625 Thurston Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	939	$1,300	$1.38	44d	1	1.25mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	44d	1	1.27mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	24d	1	1.28mi
6132 Eaton Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,125	$1.42	24d	1	1.29mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	44d	1	1.30mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	44d	1	1.31mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	44d	1	1.32mi
6333 Peurifoy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	24d	1	1.33mi
1275 N Florissant Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,275	$1.26	24d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 650-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $94,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $4,272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $4,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 25,008
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,381
• Household income: $52,328
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 957.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.56%
• Current HPI: 138.6781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+33.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $94,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $30,214 Public Records
• 2017-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,150,000 Public Records
• 2009-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $16,800 Public Records
• 2004-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,076 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.