16254 Bergara Bend Dr · Houston, TX 77357

$174,991

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $106/sqft · 36% below area Est $272k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shadow Forest El (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C+, #559 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 626 students, 17% FRL); Riverwood Middle (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,135 students, 12% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1412 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,366 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.88%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,990
• List price: $174,991
• Delta: -35.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31521 Pianella Ln	0.90mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+4%)	1mo	$190,990	$111	58
702 Zuppino Ln	0.85mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+4%)	1mo	$199,990	$116	58
713 Pennabilli Ln	0.94mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+6%)	1mo	$195,990	$111	54
31509 Olivella Dr	0.98mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+6%)	1mo	$199,990	$114	53
703 Pennabilli Ln	0.90mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+6%)	1mo	$224,990	$128	53
31514 Pianella Ln	0.91mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+6%)	2mo	$209,990	$119	53
31511 San Floro Dr	1.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-3%)	2mo	$237,990	$149	53
718 Rosa Bianca Way	0.87mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-5%)	0mo	$207,990	$132	51
31506 Pianella Ln	0.91mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-8%)	1mo	$167,991	$110	45
712 Rosa Bianca Way	0.85mi	4/3.0	1,875 (+13%)	1mo	$259,990	$139	38
31207 Piccolo Fiore Ln	0.79mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-12%)	1mo	$180,990	$125	38
31508 San Floro Dr	1.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+14%)	2mo	$249,991	$133	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,207
• Equity at exit: $26,092

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,427
• Equity at exit: $15,130

Cash invested: $48,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.6 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $200,990 ($129/sqft)
• Median days on market: 7 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1412
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $174,991

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $524	-5% $464	+0% $403	+5% $343	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $323	+0% $403	+5% $484	+10% $565
Rate	-1.0pp $492	-0.5pp $448	base $403	+0.5pp $358	+1.0pp $312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,748
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31208 Piccolo Fiore Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,695	$1.16	10d	1	0.82mi
917 Capracotta Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,800	$1.09	7d	1	1.23mi
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,699	$1.25	11d	1	1.23mi
935 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,850	$1.56	11d	1	1.25mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,599	$1.09	69d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $174,991 Active 403-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,802
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $4,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 19 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,280–$24,840 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan and a well-maintained exterior, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves both aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Shadow Forest El C+ TX #559/4,322 Nat'l #9,263/41,679 Middle Riverwood Middle A TX #58/1,662 Nat'l #819/14,009 High Humble H S F TX #1,348/1,632 Nat'l #13,542/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

---

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B