6351 Pebble Brook Ln · Williamson, NY 14589

$108,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming ranch style home in in the Whispering Woods. This home features a large eat in kitchen with center island and living room with stone fireplace. There are 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, family room & dining room combo. Outside there is a front porch for relaxing and a carport with a patio area for entertaining. There is also a shed for additional storage. Home has central air, and all appliances are included. Updates include: New Furnace 2023, New Hot Water Heater 2024, Roof 2022, A/C 2021, Dishwasher 2023, Water Softener, Newer Refrigerator. Delayed negotiations until May 7th at 2pm

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Gas fireplace
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• MULTIPLE LIVING SPACES
• GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $780

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Carport; Driveway parking
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); Double-wide mobile home; Resale condition; Made by Castile; Asphalt roof; Faces city street
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Open porch; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Separate/formal living room; Open living/dining area; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#141 in NY, #2,196 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Williamson Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #363 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $753 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $107,266 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.24%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,048
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3897 Ridge Rd	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (+0%)	6mo	$258,000	$128	69
3834 Ridge Rd	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,240 (+11%)	6mo	$300,000	$134	50
6195 State Route 21	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,298 (+14%)	14mo	$100,000	$44	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $8,659
• Equity at exit: $16,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $41,474
• Equity at exit: $9,416

Cash invested: $30,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14589

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,634/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $953

Max offer price $108,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,225
• Closing costs: $3,267
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4218 Ridge Rd Williamson, NY	2.0	1.0	2362	$1,475	$0.62	43d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $108,900 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $108,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $108,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $108,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $108,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   listed $108,900 Active
7. 2024-05-24
   soldstatus $81,000 Closed 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   Charming ranch style home in in the Whispering Woods. This home features a large eat in kitchen with center island and living room with stone fireplace. There are 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, family room & dining room combo. Outside there is a front porch for relaxing and a carport with a patio area for entertaining. There is also a shed for additional storage. Home has central air, and all appliances are included. Updates include: New Furnace 2023, New Hot Water Heater 2024, Roof 2022, A/C 2021, Dishwasher 2023, Water Softener, Newer Refrigerator. Delayed negotiations until May 7th at 2pm

8. 2024-05-08
   status Pending 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   Charming ranch style home in in the Whispering Woods. This home features a large eat in kitchen with center island and living room with stone fireplace. There are 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, family room & dining room combo. Outside there is a front porch for relaxing and a carport with a patio area for entertaining. There is also a shed for additional storage. Home has central air, and all appliances are included. Updates include: New Furnace 2023, New Hot Water Heater 2024, Roof 2022, A/C 2021, Dishwasher 2023, Water Softener, Newer Refrigerator. Delayed negotiations until May 7th at 2pm

9. 2024-04-30
   listed $64,900 Active 603-char remark

   Show marketing remark (603 chars)

   Charming ranch style home in in the Whispering Woods. This home features a large eat in kitchen with center island and living room with stone fireplace. There are 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, family room & dining room combo. Outside there is a front porch for relaxing and a carport with a patio area for entertaining. There is also a shed for additional storage. Home has central air, and all appliances are included. Updates include: New Furnace 2023, New Hot Water Heater 2024, Roof 2022, A/C 2021, Dishwasher 2023, Water Softener, Newer Refrigerator. Delayed negotiations until May 7th at 2pm

10. 2012-03-20
    soldstatus $49,900 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Immed. Occ in this over 2,000sf home. 3 bedrms, 2 full bath. B etter than new! plus car port, patio, front deck, sercurity system, cent. air. Eat-in Kit w/ island, apls included, Family room with the gas stoned fplc & book shelves. 1 st flr lndry. Just Beautiful!!! EZ showings please be pre-approved or cash purchase, prior to appointment. Need personal fiancing call me. One owner better than new!!!

11. 2012-01-31
    listed $49,900 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Immed. Occ in this over 2,000sf home. 3 bedrms, 2 full bath. B etter than new! plus car port, patio, front deck, sercurity system, cent. air. Eat-in Kit w/ island, apls included, Family room with the gas stoned fplc & book shelves. 1 st flr lndry. Just Beautiful!!! EZ showings please be pre-approved or cash purchase, prior to appointment. Need personal fiancing call me. One owner better than new!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,100
• − Property taxes: −$1,634
• − Insurance: −$544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$3,168
• Taxable income: $3,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$821
• After-tax cash flow: $4,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631440
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,080
• Composite: 43.79/100
• National rank: #2937
• State rank: #363 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #2196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,904

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.43%
• Current HPI: 234.0889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+118.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $108,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $81,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-05-08 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-04-30 Listed $64,900 UNYREIS
• 2012-03-20 Sold (MLS) $49,900 UNYREIS
• 2012-01-31 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS