1821 E Beverly Dr · Shepherd, TX 77371

$118,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1974 2.84 ac lot Est $184k · 36% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great rural property with almost 3 acres for sale. 1821 E Beverly is being sold with 300 Kim for a total of 2.842 acres. Mostly cleared corner lot with a few mature trees, metal shop, cross fenced, and ready for new owners. Endless possibilities for new home, animals and/or peaceful retreat. NO HOA. Low taxes. Shepherd ISD. Minutes from 59N/FM223/HWY 150. 20 mins from Livingston, Cleveland or Coldspring,TX

Key facts

• Metal shop
• Cleared corner lot
• Almost 3 acres

Tags

• ALMOST 3 ACRES
• CLEARED CORNER LOT
• METAL SHOP
• CROSS FENCED
• NO HOA
• LOW TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.4% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($816 loan paydown + $195 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,380 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.58%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,320
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Hooker Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$99,000	$69	67
280 Jill St	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,394 (-3%)	18mo	$244,900	$176	58
201 Marie St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,252 (-13%)	15mo	$160,000	$128	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,651
• Equity at exit: $35,241

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $30,157
• Equity at exit: $43,150

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,197/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,236

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $118,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    price $120,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Great rural property with almost 3 acres for sale. 1821 E Beverly is being sold with 300 Kim for a total of 2.842 acres. Mostly cleared corner lot with a few mature trees, metal shop, cross fenced, and ready for new owners. Endless possibilities for new home, animals and/or peaceful retreat. NO HOA. Low taxes. Shepherd ISD. Minutes from 59N/FM223/HWY 150. 20 mins from Livingston, Cleveland or Coldspring,TX

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $130,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Great rural property with almost 3 acres for sale. 1821 E Beverly is being sold with 300 Kim for a total of 2.842 acres. Mostly cleared corner lot with a few mature trees, metal shop, cross fenced, and ready for new owners. Endless possibilities for new home, animals and/or peaceful retreat. NO HOA. Low taxes. Shepherd ISD. Minutes from 59N/FM223/HWY 150. 20 mins from Livingston, Cleveland or Coldspring,TX

17. 2025-09-26
    historical
18. 2025-06-26
    listed $145,000 Active
19. 2025-06-17
    historical
20. 2025-02-18
    listed $155,000 Active
21. 2024-12-31
    historical
22. 2024-08-19
    status Active
23. 2024-08-15
    historical
24. 2024-05-28
    price $155,000
25. 2024-03-18
    listed $160,000 Active
26. 2006-09-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,197 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,197 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$2,197
• − Insurance: −$2,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable loss: −$460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$110
• After-tax cash flow: $1,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-18 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-28 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-18 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2006-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,197 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.