209 Hollys Eddy Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$67,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new energy efficient home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open layout that feels spacious and easy to live in. The modern kitchen includes updated appliances, custom cabinetry, and a large island, and the private primary suite features a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms give you the flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Come see why people love it here! On-site financing options that include rent-to-own options. Schedule a tour and join our Rosenberg, TX community!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 48 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $67,995

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and power; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec new construction (Plan: Essence)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,216 (living space)
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 716 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $65,955 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.05%
• DSCR: 3.81
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $47,264
• Equity at exit: $10,138

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $102,229
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,039 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 716
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $1,000

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $67,995

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,047	-5% $1,024	+0% $1,000	+5% $977	+10% $953
Rent	-10% $853	-5% $927	+0% $1,000	+5% $1,074	+10% $1,147
Rate	-1.0pp $1,035	-0.5pp $1,018	base $1,000	+0.5pp $983	+1.0pp $965

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,999
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
637 Brazos Point Dr Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,850	$1.62	25d	1	0.09mi
1209 Mulcahy St Unit 1205 Rosenberg, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,075	$1.54	2d	1	0.90mi
1202 3rd St Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,575	$1.12	25d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,995 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,995 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,995 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,995 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,995 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $67,995 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,995 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $67,995 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $67,995 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,995 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,995 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,995 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,995 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $67,995 Active 497-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $11,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,787
• After-tax cash flow: $9,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern, energy-efficient home offers a spacious and open layout with a well-maintained kitchen and living area. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor exterior and interior upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants and buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and modern appeal, attracting more tenants and buyers.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers and tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants and buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and modern appeal, attracting more tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts more buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants and buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B