8021 Old Pacific Hwy N #11 · Castle Rock, WA 98611

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1971 4,819 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully remodeled and move-in ready! The first two months space rent to be paid by seller with accepted offer. Situated on a rare oversized fenced lot, this beautifully updated home offers quality upgrades throughout. The stunning kitchen features counter-to-ceiling tile, new cabinets, countertops, a porcelain farmhouse sink, and brand-new Frigidaire stainless steel appliances. Additional improvements include new flooring, a remodeled bathroom, upgraded electrical, all-new plumbing, new vapor barrier, new windows, siding, and fresh interior and exterior paint. Stay cozy with the wood-burning stove and enjoy outdoor living year-round from two covered porches. The property also features attract

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New siding
• New septic system

Tags

• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW SIDING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• FILTERED COMMUNITY WELL WATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a paved dead-end street; Calculated living area: 864 square feet
• Financial info: Land lease: $850; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Viking Village (senior community); Approximately 15 homes in the park; Park approved for sale; Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (community well); Community septic; Cowlitz PUD power; Interior tank water heater
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Updated/remodeled; Built after 6/15/1976; Redman New Moon model; Slab foundation
• Construction: Metal/vinyl and wood construction; Torch down roof
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl and wood exterior; Awnings; Vaulted ceilings

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood burning); Water heater (tank)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $885 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 2.2% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#209 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Rock Elementary (702 students, 58% FRL); Castle Rock High School (449 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $95k implies a 374% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $93,476 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.95%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $19,872
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8021 Old Pacific Hwy N #11	0.00mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	8mo	$20,000	$23	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $40,996
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $108,372
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98611

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $885

Break-even live

Break-even rent $830

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
498 Kroll Rd Castle Rock, WA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,950	$1.97	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $94,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $94,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-29
    listed $94,900 Active
18. 2025-10-10
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed
19. 2025-09-30
    status Pending
20. 2025-09-25
    listed $20,000 Active
21. 1997-03-01
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $9,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,324
• After-tax cash flow: $8,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Castle Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 5300990
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,823
• Composite: 41.78/100
• National rank: #7162
• State rank: #174 of 291 in WA

Livability — Castle Rock

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #5888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,367

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.17%
• Current HPI: 261.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+630.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $94,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Sold (MLS) $20,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Listed $20,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $167 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.