Barbados Plan · Port St. Lucie, FL 34984

$572,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,422 sqft · SingleFamily · 389 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• Casual dining nook
• Barbados floor plan

Tags

• BARBADOS FLOOR PLAN
• EXPANSIVE LAYOUT
• INVITING LANAI
• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• CASUAL DINING NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $572,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Barbados); Living area approximately 3,422
• Exterior features: Located at SE Ranch Oak Circle, Port St. Lucie, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named "Barbados" (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $572,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $670,712.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $573k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $572k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,004/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 266% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($504k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $500,388 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $670,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
909 SE Seasons Ln	0.11mi	4/3.5	3,422 (0%)	11mo	$670,000	$196	86
521 SE Ranch Oak Cir	0.11mi	4/3.5	3,053 (-11%)	4mo	$542,000	$178	74
3626 SE Cedarstone Pl	0.16mi	4/3.5	3,053 (-11%)	2mo	$585,000	$192	73
529 SE Ranch Oak Cir	0.13mi	4/3.5	3,053 (-11%)	5mo	$580,020	$190	72
621 SE Ranch Oak Cir	0.21mi	4/3.5	3,053 (-11%)	1mo	$549,900	$180	71
589 SE Ranch Oak Cir	0.20mi	4/3.5	3,053 (-11%)	5mo	$582,000	$191	69
565 SE Ranch Oak Cir	0.20mi	4/3.5	3,053 (-11%)	12mo	$531,444	$174	62
2991 SW Murphy Rd	0.69mi	4/2.5	3,300 (-4%)	6mo	$1,700,000	$515	53
3306 SW Bicopa Pl	0.40mi	4/4.0	2,920 (-15%)	3mo	$1,100,000	$377	52
3441 SW Rivers End Way	0.39mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,786 (+11%)	9mo	$1,210,000	$320	50
3306 SW Rivers End Way	0.50mi	4/4.5	3,836 (+12%)	6mo	$1,950,000	$508	47
13407 NW Wax Myrtle Trl	0.64mi	4/4.5	3,796 (+11%)	2mo	$900,000	$237	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-144,178
• Equity at exit: $100,005

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-147,845
• Equity at exit: $57,991

Cash invested: $187,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34984

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$838 /mo · $10,061/yr
• Insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,051
• Net cashflow: $-682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,867

Max offer price $572,015

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $167,678
• Closing costs: $20,121
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1332 SE Willow Oaks St Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	3.5	2800	$3,650	$1.30	14d	1	0.67mi
527 SE Vallarta Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	5.0	5.0	4284	$8,800	$2.05	14d	1	0.94mi
170 SE Calmo Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	4.0	4.5	3135	$5,500	$1.75	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $572,999 Active 389 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $572,999 Active 388 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $572,999 Active 387 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $572,999 Active 386 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $572,999 Active 384 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $572,999 Active 383 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $572,999 Active 381 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $572,999 Active 380 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $572,999 Active 379 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $572,999 Active 378 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $572,999 Active 375 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $572,999 Active 374 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $572,999 Active 373 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $572,999 Active 372 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $572,999 Active 371 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $572,999 Active 370 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,570
• − Property taxes: −$10,061
• − Insurance: −$3,354
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,804
• − Management: −$4,804
• − Depreciation: −$19,512
• Taxable loss: −$20,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,814
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,151
• Household income: $80,725
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 266.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.06%
• Current HPI: 373.9523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B