9729 Clayton Blvd · Clayton, NC 27520

$225,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1963 0.57 ac lot Est $319k · 29% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SEE THE FUTURE POTENTIAL!! 1317Ssqft, 3BDR, 1BA Brick Ranch on . 57ac Lot on Clayton Blvd. Large Family Room. Kitchen with Built in Corner Cabinet and Large Cabinet and Counter Area. Wood Floors in some areas. Very nice Established Backyard.

Key facts

• Established backyard
• 0.57 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• BUILT IN CORNER CABINET
• LARGE CABINET AND COUNTER AREA
• ESTABLISHED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,317 (source: appraiser)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story house; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; See remarks regarding roof; 0.57 acre lot; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Wood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bathtub/shower combination; Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Has crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($434/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#155 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clayton High (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #325 of 535 statewide, top 61%, 2,024 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 753 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,796 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Duplin Ln	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-3%)	15mo	$310,000	$226	57
32 Blue Iris Pkwy #119	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,533 (+9%)	13mo	$344,728	$225	54
50 Carteret Ct	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (+7%)	1mo	$368,420	$244	50
143 Swain St	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (+7%)	4mo	$320,000	$212	49
135 Village Walk Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (-6%)	14mo	$332,500	$250	49
205 Falcon Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-13%)	0mo	$224,900	$183	48
74 Carteret Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-7%)	7mo	$343,615	$263	48
28 Carteret Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (+7%)	6mo	$381,295	$253	47
70 Blue Iris Pkwy #127	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+14%)	15mo	$339,000	$212	46
44 Carteret Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (+6%)	8mo	$365,000	$245	46
108 Cheyenne Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+15%)	1mo	$355,000	$219	38
119 Yadkin St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,553 (+10%)	10mo	$325,000	$209	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,278
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-46,556
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27520

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 753
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,832

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $100	+0% $36	+5% $-27	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-38	+0% $36	+5% $110	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $93	base $36	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
169 Sunnyview Ln Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	0.23mi
135 Buckhorn Branch Park Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1533	$1,995	$1.30	17d	1	0.26mi
21 Pansy Park Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1760	$1,850	$1.05	12d	1	0.42mi
19 Nettle Ln Clayton, NC	3.0	3.0	1763	$1,895	$1.07	17d	1	0.44mi
701 Avondale Dr Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,669	$1.37	24d	1	0.62mi
56 Bent Branch Loop Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,884	$1.28	3d	1	0.67mi
56 Bent Branch Loop Clayton, NC	2.0	2.0	1267	$1,710	$1.35	24d	1	0.67mi
912 E Joyner St Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,675	$1.17	4d	1	0.80mi
128 Mill St Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,947	$1.52	3d	1	0.89mi
233 Norwich Dr Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1717	$1,905	$1.11	2d	1	1.05mi
101 Shady Ln Clayton, NC	3.0	1.5	1014	$1,000	$0.99	13d	1	1.19mi
201 Hardee St Clayton, NC	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	5d	1	1.23mi
3010 Brittany Dr Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,615	$1.30	24d	1	1.27mi
412 Hamby St Clayton, NC	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,550	$0.88	3d	1	1.37mi
167 Seville Way Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1231	$1,695	$1.38	17d	1	1.45mi
177 Seville Way Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1231	$1,725	$1.40	5d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $225,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-04
    listed $285,000 Active
17. 2026-02-28
    historical
18. 2025-10-20
    price $285,000
19. 2025-08-31
    listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,085 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,085 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,429
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$823
• After-tax cash flow: $1,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #8516

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clayton, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• City population: 87,270
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 48,014
• Household income: $86,322
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 760.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.88%
• Current HPI: 238.2079
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $285,000 TMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $285,000 TMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listed $300,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,085 · +65.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.