🏷️ Likely Rental
214 Herman St · Buffalo, NY
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 92°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.6/10.0
- Appreciation +6.0/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$130,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records
Listing remarks MLS
3/3 Double in the city of Buffalo. Property is already tenant-occupied. Located just minutes from the 33 expressway, Delaware Park, downtown Buffalo, and many restaurants and other fine amenities. Great for a first-time investor or owner-occupied property.
Key facts
- Downtown buffalo
- Many restaurants
- Fine amenities
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $130k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
- Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
- Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $1,902/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $4k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
- At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $33k; list at $130k implies a 294% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.46% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.87%
- Cash-on-cash
- 19.91%
- DSCR
- 1.89
- GRM
- 5.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $186,059
- List price
- $130,000
- Delta
- -30.13%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 352 Guilford St | 0.28mi | 5/2.0 | 2,088 (+3%) | 15mo | $120,000 | $57 | 70 |
| 236 Grey St | 0.26mi | 4/2.0 (-1) | 2,106 (+4%) | 12mo | $175,000 | $83 | 66 |
| 494 Wilson St | 0.24mi | 6/2.0 (+1) | 2,148 (+6%) | 11mo | $121,000 | $56 | 65 |
| 396 Guilford St | 0.35mi | 6/3.0 (+1) | 2,144 (+6%) | 2mo | $135,000 | $63 | 63 |
| 324 Carlton St | 0.61mi | 4/2.0 (-1) | 1,947 (-4%) | 4mo | $66,100 | $34 | 57 |
| 443 Madison St | 0.54mi | 5/2.0 | 1,892 (-7%) | 8mo | $75,000 | $40 | 57 |
| 41 Pershing Ave | 0.40mi | 4/2.0 (-1) | 1,938 (-4%) | 17mo | $145,000 | $75 | 54 |
| 553 E North St | 0.30mi | 5/2.0 | 2,272 (+12%) | 16mo | $83,800 | $37 | 52 |
| 227 Timon St | 0.65mi | 6/2.0 (+1) | 2,084 (+3%) | 10mo | $190,000 | $91 | 51 |
| 301 Reed St | 0.23mi | 6/2.0 (+1) | 2,224 (+10%) | 20mo | $65,000 | $29 | 51 |
| 64 Sweet Ave | 0.71mi | 5/2.0 | 1,740 (-14%) | 8mo | $145,000 | $83 | 37 |
| 143 Sobieski St | 0.63mi | 4/2.0 (-1) | 1,860 (-8%) | 19mo | $35,000 | $19 | 36 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 24.3%
- Equity multiple
- 2.31×
- Total profit
- $47,734
- Equity at exit
- $51,621
- IRR
- 26.0%
- Equity multiple
- 4.42×
- Total profit
- $124,388
- Equity at exit
- $74,602
Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 14211
- Home prices YoY
- 0.6%
- Active inventory
- 172
- Price-to-rent
- 5.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,902 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$682
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
- Insurance
- −$54
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$399
- Net cashflow
- $604
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $694 | -5% $649 | +0% $604 | +5% $559 | +10% $514 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $454 | -5% $529 | +0% $604 | +5% $679 | +10% $754 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $669 | -0.5pp $637 | base $604 | +0.5pp $570 | +1.0pp $536 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $32,500
- Closing costs
- $3,900
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 2 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1848 | $1,500 | $0.81 | 24d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1496 | $3,226 | $2.16 | 15d | 1 | 1.27mi |
Listing history 16 events
-
2026-06-02days on market $130,000 Active 210 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $130,000 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $130,000 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-04-13price $130,000 256-char remark
Show marketing remark (256 chars)
3/3 Double in the city of Buffalo. Property is already tenant-occupied. Located just minutes from the 33 expressway, Delaware Park, downtown Buffalo, and many restaurants and other fine amenities. Great for a first-time investor or owner-occupied property.
-
2025-11-18price $159,500 256-char remark
Show marketing remark (256 chars)
3/3 Double in the city of Buffalo. Property is already tenant-occupied. Located just minutes from the 33 expressway, Delaware Park, downtown Buffalo, and many restaurants and other fine amenities. Great for a first-time investor or owner-occupied property.
-
2025-11-04$172,500 Active 256-char remark
Show marketing remark (256 chars)
3/3 Double in the city of Buffalo. Property is already tenant-occupied. Located just minutes from the 33 expressway, Delaware Park, downtown Buffalo, and many restaurants and other fine amenities. Great for a first-time investor or owner-occupied property.
-
2018-10-01soldstatus $33,000
-
2017-10-13soldstatus $45,000
-
2016-04-18historical
-
2016-04-04price $7,000
-
2016-02-22$7,500 Active
-
2016-01-02historical
-
2015-09-09price $6,000
-
2015-08-03price $6,900
-
2015-07-24price $8,900
-
2015-05-23$9,900 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $22,821
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,282
- − Property taxes
- −$1,950
- − Insurance
- −$650
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,826
- − Management
- −$1,826
- − Depreciation
- −$3,782
- Taxable income
- $5,506
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,321
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,926/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Buffalo City School District
- NCES district ID
- 3605850
- Math proficiency
- 41% ▲ 11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▲ 7.00%
- Median HH income
- $31,665
- Composite
- 33.17/100
- National rank
- #5544
- State rank
- #535 of 590 in NY
Livability — Buffalo
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #195
- US rank
- #3011
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Buffalo, NY
- County
- Erie County · 714,559 people
- City population
- 440,021
- Metro
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,663
- Household income
- $36,300
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1804.0
Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 933,037 people
- By 2030
- 935,181 · +0.2%
- By 2040
- 928,531 · -0.5%
- By 2050
- 905,725 · -2.9%
- By 2075
- 834,037 · -10.6%
- By 2100
- 708,033 · -24.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 6%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4%
- Foreign-born
- 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Erie
- 2024 margin
- Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- Current HPI
- 357.6438
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
|
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| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
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| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
|
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| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
|
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
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Price history
+1213.1% since first listed13 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-13 Price Changed $130,000 WNYREIS
- 2025-11-18 Price Changed $159,500 WNYREIS
- 2025-11-04 Listed $172,500 WNYREIS
- 2018-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
- 2017-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
- 2016-04-18 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
- 2016-04-04 Price Changed $7,000 WNYREIS
- 2016-02-22 Listed $7,500 WNYREIS
- 2016-01-02 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
- 2015-09-09 Price Changed $6,000 WNYREIS
- 2015-08-03 Price Changed $6,900 WNYREIS
- 2015-07-24 Price Changed $8,900 WNYREIS
- 2015-05-23 Listed $9,900 WNYREIS
Property tax history
+19.4%/yrLatest (2025): $112 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…