Concho Plan · Temple, TX 76502

$247,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Concho Floor Plan - 3-Bedroom, 2-Bathroom Single-Story Home with Open Layout and Efficient DesignThe Concho floor plan offers a thoughtfully designed single-story layout, featuring three bedrooms and two full bathrooms across 1,404 square feet. This home emphasizes open-concept living, making it ideal for families seeking both comfort and functionality. The expansive family room seamlessly connects to the kitchen and dining areas, creating an inviting space for gatherings and daily activities. The kitchen features a large island and granite countertops, enhancing the home's practicality and style. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family members, guests, or a home office setup. An open-air patio extends the living space outdoors, perfect for relaxing evenings or weekend gatherings. The Concho floor plan combines practicality with elegant design, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a comfortable and versatile home.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Efficient design
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• EFFICIENT DESIGN
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE RETREAT

🏗️ New construction. The $247,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,982.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Temple ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #590 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1512 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,220 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,982
• List price: $247,900
• Delta: -9.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1619 Flatland Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-0%)	7mo	$180,100	$129	71
2042 Yarrelton Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+9%)	10mo	$265,000	$173	66
1423 Flatland Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-6%)	2mo	$265,000	$201	62
3804 Oglala Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+5%)	4mo	$279,000	$189	59
1518 Flatland Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+7%)	4mo	$284,000	$189	58
3816 Oglala Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-6%)	4mo	$272,000	$207	58
1514 Black Kettle Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-6%)	3mo	$204,700	$155	53
3714 Oglala	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,473 (+5%)	11mo	$279,200	$190	49
1522 Curlew Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,565 (+12%)	6mo	$270,000	$173	44
1621 Cedar River Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+14%)	8mo	$295,000	$184	44
3707 Mccleland Creek Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+14%)	13mo	$280,000	$175	42
3608 Oglala Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+10%)	13mo	$265,000	$171	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,068
• Equity at exit: $40,703

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-123,223
• Equity at exit: $23,603

Cash invested: $76,435 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $253,350 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1512
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,095/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,388

Max offer price $210,590

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-243	-5% $-337	+0% $-431	+5% $-526	+10% $-620
Rent	-10% $-577	-5% $-504	+0% $-431	+5% $-358	+10% $-286
Rate	-1.0pp $-294	-0.5pp $-362	base $-431	+0.5pp $-502	+1.0pp $-574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,246
• Closing costs: $8,189
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2037 Yarrelton Dr Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1789	$2,195	$1.23	0d	1	0.13mi
1905 Westphalia Dr Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,895	$1.14	0d	1	0.29mi
4926 Bellfalls Ct Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$3,900	$2.95	139d	1	0.36mi
3711 McCleland Creek Trl Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	6d	1	0.52mi
3703 McCleland Creek Trl Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1621	$4,550	$2.81	6d	1	0.53mi
3703 McCleland Creek Trl Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1621	$4,950	$3.05	139d	1	0.53mi
1619 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	6d	1	0.54mi
1607 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,899	$1.24	139d	1	0.56mi
1503 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1830	$1,795	$0.98	119d	1	0.61mi
1614 Curlew Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,795	$1.17	109d	1	0.66mi
1615 Black Kettle Trl Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1777	$2,050	$1.15	6d	1	0.68mi
1423 Curlew Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,875	$1.17	139d	1	0.70mi
1526 Black Kettle Trl Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,750	$1.24	139d	1	0.73mi
3050 Dade Loop Unit DADE3050 Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,695	$1.12	3d	1	0.77mi
1907 Delano Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,700	$1.34	116d	1	0.77mi
1909 Euclid Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,600	$0.99	119d	1	0.82mi
1905 Euclid Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,595	$1.26	3d	1	0.82mi
2072 Dade Loop Unit DADE2072 Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,535	$1.22	109d	1	0.84mi
2152 Meridian Loop Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,700	$1.25	109d	1	0.93mi
1622 Lummus Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1518	$1,600	$1.05	139d	1	0.94mi
1551 Case Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,600	$1.22	139d	1	0.97mi
1515 Case Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,600	$1.22	119d	1	1.03mi
108 McFaddan Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,795	$1.00	139d	1	1.20mi
1418 Eaton Dr Temple, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1529	$1,736	$1.14	0d	11	1.23mi
2509 Elk Creek St Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,825	$1.05	119d	1	1.23mi
216 Pullman Place Blvd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,550	$1.29	6d	1	1.27mi
105 Pullman Place Blvd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,600	$1.10	6d	1	1.36mi
208A Andy Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	139d	1	1.42mi
212A Andy Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	139d	1	1.44mi
2420 Alterman Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,325	$0.99	119d	1	1.48mi
2416 Alterman Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,395	$1.06	6d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $247,900 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $247,900 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $247,900 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $247,900 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $247,900 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $247,900 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $247,900 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $247,900 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $247,900 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $247,900 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $247,900 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $247,900 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $247,900 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $247,900 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $247,900 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $247,900 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $247,900 Active 161 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $247,900 Active 160 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $247,900 Active 159 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $247,900 Active 158 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $247,900 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $247,900 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $247,900 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $247,900 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $247,900 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $247,900 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $247,900 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $247,900 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $247,900 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $247,900 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $247,900 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $247,900 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $247,900 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $247,900 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $247,900 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $247,900 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $247,900 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $247,900 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $247,900 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $247,900 Active 137 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $247,900 Active 136 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $247,900 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $247,900 Active 134 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $247,900 Active 131 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $247,900 Active 130 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $247,900 Active 129 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $247,900 Active 127 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $247,900 Active 125 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $247,900 Active 124 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $247,900 Active 123 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,291
• − Property taxes: −$4,095
• − Insurance: −$1,365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$7,941
• Taxable loss: −$10,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,429
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,020–$21,060 screening

This Concho floor plan is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Clean the gutters — Improves the home's appearance and can prevent water damage ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Travis Science Academy F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temple ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842330
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,120
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7123
• State rank: #590 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 371,114 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $247,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $243,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Listed $243,200 Zillow