4013 Nassau St · Gulfport, MS
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,241 – $2,305
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +11.6/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Rent growth +5.0/5.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Schools +3.4/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$72,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
3bdrm 1.5 bath, No outside a/c condenser Outside storage shed. Vacant and boarded up. Newer roof and nice front porch. Out of flood zone. Part of a 28 home pkg.
Key facts
- Newer roof
- Nice front porch
- Out of flood zone
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $476 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
- Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
- Gulfport School District (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #37 of 130 in MS (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($35k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 259 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 259 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.68% ✓
- Cap rate
- 14.13%
- Cash-on-cash
- 27.99%
- DSCR
- 2.25
- GRM
- 5.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $80,169
- List price
- $72,900
- Delta
- -9.07%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3511 Bonita Dr | 0.09mi | 3/1.0 | 1,269 (+4%) | 8mo | $69,900 | $55 | 83 |
| 3515 38th Ave | 0.23mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,232 (+1%) | 3mo | $82,000 | $67 | 76 |
| 4505 Heron St | 0.54mi | 3/1.0 | 1,170 (-4%) | 2mo | $110,000 | $94 | 66 |
| 3802 Anita Dr | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 | 1,134 (-7%) | 8mo | $131,000 | $116 | 58 |
| 4214 31st St | 0.33mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,073 (-12%) | 11mo | $112,000 | $104 | 50 |
| 4809 29th St | 0.68mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,286 (+5%) | 9mo | $113,000 | $88 | 47 |
| 4617 30th St | 0.58mi | 3/2.0 | 1,100 (-10%) | 8mo | $127,900 | $116 | 45 |
| 3502 Meadowlark Dr | 0.64mi | 3/1.5 | 1,100 (-10%) | 9mo | $130,000 | $118 | 44 |
| 4620 Redstart Dr | 0.59mi | 3/1.0 | 1,053 (-14%) | 7mo | $95,900 | $91 | 44 |
| 2950 49th Ave | 0.68mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,350 (+10%) | 0mo | $128,000 | $95 | 42 |
| 4628 Redstart Dr | 0.56mi | 3/2.0 | 1,397 (+14%) | 6mo | $143,500 | $103 | 41 |
| 2820 50th Ave | 0.73mi | 3/2.0 | 1,400 (+15%) | 1mo | $199,900 | $143 | 37 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 27.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.22×
- Total profit
- $24,983
- Equity at exit
- $10,870
- IRR
- 38.0%
- Equity multiple
- 5.42×
- Total profit
- $90,257
- Equity at exit
- $6,303
Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Mississippi
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 39501
- Home prices YoY
- -34.5%
- Rents YoY
- 10.5%
- Active inventory
- 252
- Price-to-rent
- 5.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,223 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$382
- Tax from tax record
- −$77 /mo · $928/yr
- Insurance
- −$30
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$257
- Net cashflow
- $476
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $517 | -5% $497 | +0% $476 | +5% $455 | +10% $435 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $379 | -5% $428 | +0% $476 | +5% $524 | +10% $573 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $513 | -0.5pp $495 | base $476 | +0.5pp $457 | +1.0pp $438 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $18,225
- Closing costs
- $2,187
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 10 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3712 37th Ave Gulfport, MS | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1144 | $1,175 | $1.03 | 14d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 3625 Meadowlark Dr Gulfport, MS | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1315 | $1,200 | $0.91 | 14d | 1 | 0.52mi |
| 3008 50th Ave Gulfport, MS | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1054 | $1,050 | $1.00 | 14d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 3401 54th Ave Gulfport, MS | 2.0 | 1.0 | 767 | $895 | $1.17 | 14d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 2414 34th Ave Gulfport, MS | 2.0 | 1.0 | 912 | $1,125 | $1.23 | 21d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 4605 Michigan Ave Gulfport, MS | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $850 | $1.21 | 44d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 4609 Michigan Ave Gulfport, MS | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $825 | $1.03 | 14d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 2986 58th Ave Gulfport, MS | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1153 | $1,295 | $1.12 | 14d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 2317 30th St Gulfport, MS | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1164 | $2,150 | $1.85 | 21d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 2110 30th St Gulfport, MS | 2.0 | 2.0 | 950 | $950 | $1.00 | 21d | 1 | 1.41mi |
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $72,900 Active 259 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $72,900 Active 258 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $72,900 Active 257 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $72,900 Active 256 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $72,900 Active 254 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $72,900 Active 253 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $72,900 Active 251 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $72,900 Active 250 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $72,900 Active 249 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $72,900 Active 248 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $72,900 Active 245 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $72,900 Active 243 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $72,900 Active 242 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $72,900 Active 241 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $72,900 Active 240 DOM
-
2026-05-01price $72,900 162-char remark
Show marketing remark (162 chars)
3bdrm 1.5 bath, No outside a/c condenser Outside storage shed. Vacant and boarded up. Newer roof and nice front porch. Out of flood zone. Part of a 28 home pkg.
-
2025-10-01$81,000 Active 162-char remark
Show marketing remark (162 chars)
3bdrm 1.5 bath, No outside a/c condenser Outside storage shed. Vacant and boarded up. Newer roof and nice front porch. Out of flood zone. Part of a 28 home pkg.
-
2015-01-22soldstatus
-
2011-11-07soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $928 · $77/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $928 · $77/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $14,675
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,084
- − Property taxes
- −$928
- − Insurance
- −$364
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,174
- − Management
- −$1,174
- − Depreciation
- −$2,121
- Taxable income
- $4,830
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,159
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,554/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Gulfport School District
- NCES district ID
- 2801710
- Math proficiency
- 41% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 42% ▼ -6.00%
- Median HH income
- $35,712
- Composite
- 34.38/100
- National rank
- #5213
- State rank
- #37 of 130 in MS
Livability — Gulfport
- Score
- 73/100
- State rank
- #15
- US rank
- #5010
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Gulfport, MS
- County
- Harrison County · 178,171 people
- City population
- 96,188
- Metro
- Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
- Population (ZIP)
- 22,565
- Household income
- $34,758
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1516.0
Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 228,444 people
- By 2030
- 241,942 · +5.9%
- By 2040
- 267,531 · +17.1%
- By 2050
- 291,062 · +27.4%
- By 2075
- 346,711 · +51.8%
- By 2100
- 378,165 · +65.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 4%
Political lean MEDSL · Harrison
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -110.16%
- Current HPI
- 208.998
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 10.49%
- Metro
- Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
- State GDP YoY
- —
- F500 in state
- 0
Price history
-10.0% since first listed4 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-01 Price Changed $72,900 MLSU
- 2025-10-01 Listed $81,000 MLSU
- 2015-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2011-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
-0.8%/yrLatest (2025): $928 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…