7601 San Carlos Dr · Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$255,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1986 9,375 sqft lot Est $261k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2/2 handyman special.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Fully renovated
• New kitchen

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOMS
• NEW FLOORING
• SCREENED PATIO
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as resale; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces total; Attached 1-car garage; 1 covered parking space; Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Sewer not available; Water not available
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Aluminum roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Not waterfront; No waterfront features noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed; Blinds on windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Laundry located in the garage; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($758/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,120
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7907 Lakeside Way	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,172 (+15%)	10mo	$300,000	$256	53
5412 Winter Garden Pkwy	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+8%)	21mo	$279,000	$254	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-37,237
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-27,002
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,293/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,280

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $135	+0% $63	+5% $-9	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-30	+0% $63	+5% $156	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $128	base $63	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5234 Oakland Lake Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	15d	1	0.29mi
5082 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$3,000	$2.05	25d	1	0.43mi
5154 Armina Pl Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,350	$1.59	15d	1	0.46mi
6602 Palomar Pkwy Unit A Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	25d	1	0.66mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,200	$1.60	23d	1	1.10mi
6906 Ocala Ave Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,955	$1.66	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $255,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $260,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $260,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 74 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    price $265,000
20. 2026-04-23
    price $270,000
21. 2026-04-09
    price $275,000
22. 2026-03-26
    price $280,000
23. 2026-03-17
    listed $285,000 Active
24. 2025-09-30
    soldstatus $185,000
25. 2025-09-26
    soldstatus $185,000 21-char remark

    Show marketing remark (21 chars)

    2/2 handyman special.

26. 2025-09-23
    listed $185,000 21-char remark

    Show marketing remark (21 chars)

    2/2 handyman special.

27. 1999-01-14
    soldstatus $57,500
28. 1998-12-31
    soldstatus $57,500 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    LARGE WORKSHOP WITH OVERHEAD DOOR FENCED YARD.

29. 1998-11-04
    historical 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    LARGE WORKSHOP WITH OVERHEAD DOOR FENCED YARD.

30. 1998-10-06
    listed $59,900 46-char remark

    Show marketing remark (46 chars)

    LARGE WORKSHOP WITH OVERHEAD DOOR FENCED YARD.

31. 1990-06-12
    soldstatus $53,000
32. 1986-11-01
    soldstatus $45,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,293 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,293 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 33% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$4,293
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,266
• − Management: −$2,266
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$3,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$835
• After-tax cash flow: $1,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Park

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+481.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $265,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $270,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $275,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $280,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $285,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-26 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $185,000 Beaches MLS
• 1999-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 1998-12-31 Sold (MLS) $57,500 Beaches MLS
• 1998-11-04 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 1998-10-06 Listed $59,900 Beaches MLS
• 1990-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1986-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,293 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.