129 N Spruce St · Dodge, NE 68633

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 270 Days on market

Built 1918 Est $117k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

New Electric, New Plumbing, New Insulation

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New electric
• New insulation

Tags

• NEW ELECTRIC
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW INSULATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-576/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#131 in NE, #4,913 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Howells-Dodge Consolidated Schools (rural): math 75% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #11 of 245 in NE (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dodge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $125k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,182 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,508
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
441 N Spruce St	0.29mi	3/1.0	906 (+14%)	23mo	$132,000	$146	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $64,917
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $193,475
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68633

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $641/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $116,419

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $124,900 Active 270 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $124,900 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $124,900 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 265 DOM
6. 2025-09-04
   listed $124,900 Active
7. 2004-07-27
   soldstatus $26,000
8. 2002-05-02
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $641 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,161 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,520/yr (+$127/mo · 237.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$641
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$866
• − Management: −$866
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$673
• After-tax cash flow: $97/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howells-Dodge Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100183
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,044
• Composite: 62.65/100
• National rank: #1379
• State rank: #11 of 245 in NE

Livability — Dodge

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #4913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dodge, NE
• Population (ZIP): 1,005

Population outlook (Dodge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,191 people
• By 2030: 37,238 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 37,256 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 37,494 · +0.8%
• By 2075: 39,165 · +5.3%
• By 2100: 40,221 · +8.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 4% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Dodge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.6) · D 33.0% · R 65.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -32.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.6 2020: R+32.1 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+22.7 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Current HPI: 265.8877
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+399.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Listed $124,900 Fizber.com
• 2004-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $641 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.