1117 Ainsley Ln · Forney, TX 75126

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot $138/sqft · 16% below area Est $328k · 16% under $62/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The spacious living area features abundant natural light and flows seamlessly into the kitchen with a large island, ample cabinetry, and electric appliances. The private primary suite includes dual sinks, walk in shower, and a generous walk in closet. Split bedrooms provide added privacy along with a flexible office space perfect for working from home or additional living use. Additional features include luxury vinyl plank flooring, full size utility area, and a 2 car garage. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and manageable yard. Located in a master planned community with access to pool, walking trails, playground, and greenbelt spaces. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. Move in ready and a great opportunity in one of Forney fastest growing areas.

Key facts

• Large island
• Split bedrooms
• Walk in closet

Tags

• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK IN SHOWER
• WALK IN CLOSET
• SPLIT BEDROOMS
• FLEXIBLE OFFICE SPACE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,510 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,353
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -16.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1290 Binfield Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,901 (-5%)	0mo	$294,990	$155	88
2235 Willowbank Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,986 (-1%)	0mo	$317,990	$160	71
1861 Balfour Bnd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,909 (-4%)	1mo	$309,990	$162	68
1867 Balfour Bnd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,889 (-6%)	0mo	$309,990	$164	67
2019 Brewers Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,984 (-1%)	1mo	$352,900	$178	65
104 Acadia Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,996 (-0%)	1mo	$294,900	$148	61
1165 Nora Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,171 (+9%)	0mo	$399,900	$184	59
1859 Balfour Bnd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,866 (-7%)	1mo	$304,990	$163	59
2122 Winsbury Way	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,771 (-11%)	0mo	$285,000	$161	59
1210 Haggetts Pond Rd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,062 (+3%)	1mo	$300,999	$146	54
1184 Nora Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (-10%)	1mo	$312,990	$175	50
2929 Soaring Hills Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,188 (+10%)	1mo	$374,900	$171	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-71,787
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-107,251
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$736 /mo · $8,831/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,981

Max offer price $209,510

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-215	-5% $-293	+0% $-371	+5% $-449	+10% $-526
Rent	-10% $-569	-5% $-470	+0% $-371	+5% $-272	+10% $-172
Rate	-1.0pp $-232	-0.5pp $-301	base $-371	+0.5pp $-442	+1.0pp $-514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	0.23mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	0.32mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,360	$1.66	6d	1	0.32mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	9d	1	0.37mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	18d	1	0.37mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	0.40mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,191	$1.34	1d	1	0.57mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Unit 1421 Heath, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,500	$1.38	22d	1	0.58mi
1421 Kirkhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$3,600	$1.41	26d	1	0.58mi
120 Garner Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2214	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	0.67mi
2029 Dovedale Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2426	$3,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.68mi
1806 Balfour Bnd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,600	$1.31	26d	1	0.68mi
1124 Longhorn Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2093	$2,500	$1.19	26d	1	0.76mi
1408 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2543	$3,095	$1.22	45d	1	0.78mi
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	20d	1	0.80mi
224 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,095	$1.34	1d	1	0.80mi
1448 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,950	$1.34	26d	1	0.82mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	45d	1	0.87mi
213 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	45d	1	0.89mi
236 Archer Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,300	$1.14	20d	1	0.89mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	1d	1	0.90mi
2016 Croftbank St Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	1d	1	0.91mi
1128 Queensdown Way Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,999	$1.43	45d	1	0.93mi
204 Freedom Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,925	$1.21	3d	1	0.93mi
213 Long Prairie Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$2,025	$1.03	18d	1	0.95mi
1025 Dunhill Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2273	$2,450	$1.08	3d	1	0.98mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	26d	1	1.00mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	4d	1	1.02mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	45d	1	1.03mi
105 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,900	$1.18	9d	1	1.08mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	6d	1	1.09mi
1017 Somerset Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	9d	1	1.11mi
501 Branch St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2130	$2,270	$1.07	1d	1	1.12mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	14d	1	1.16mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	45d	1	1.16mi
507 Thunder Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	1d	1	1.17mi
1120 Canterbury Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2450	$2,950	$1.20	14d	1	1.20mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	24d	1	1.21mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	26d	1	1.21mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	45d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $289,900 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    The spacious living area features abundant natural light and flows seamlessly into the kitchen with a large island, ample cabinetry, and electric appliances. The private primary suite includes dual sinks, walk in shower, and a generous walk in closet. Split bedrooms provide added privacy along with a flexible office space perfect for working from home or additional living use. Additional features include luxury vinyl plank flooring, full size utility area, and a 2 car garage. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and manageable yard. Located in a master planned community with access to pool, walking trails, playground, and greenbelt spaces. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. Move in ready and a great opportunity in one of Forney fastest growing areas.

17. 2026-03-21
    listed $299,900 Active 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    The spacious living area features abundant natural light and flows seamlessly into the kitchen with a large island, ample cabinetry, and electric appliances. The private primary suite includes dual sinks, walk in shower, and a generous walk in closet. Split bedrooms provide added privacy along with a flexible office space perfect for working from home or additional living use. Additional features include luxury vinyl plank flooring, full size utility area, and a 2 car garage. Enjoy outdoor living with a covered patio and manageable yard. Located in a master planned community with access to pool, walking trails, playground, and greenbelt spaces. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. Move in ready and a great opportunity in one of Forney fastest growing areas.

18. 2025-10-24
    status Active
19. 2025-10-20
    historical
20. 2025-07-19
    price $314,000
21. 2025-06-25
    listed $320,000 Active
22. 2025-06-25
    historical
23. 2025-06-20
    price $320,000
24. 2025-06-20
    status Active
25. 2025-05-28
    price $270,000
26. 2025-05-27
    status Active
27. 2025-05-21
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2025-05-12
    price $295,000
29. 2025-04-30
    price $305,000
30. 2025-04-01
    price $309,900
31. 2025-03-31
    price $314,900
32. 2025-03-14
    listed $319,900 Active
33. 2020-09-14
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2020-07-13
    status Pending
35. 2020-06-19
    price $250,010
36. 2020-06-12
    listed $255,010 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,831 · $736/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,831 · $736/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$8,831
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$9,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,170
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in a master-planned community is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscape — improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscape — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $289,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $314,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-27 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-05-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $305,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $309,900 NTREIS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $314,900 NTREIS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $319,900 NTREIS
• 2020-09-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-07-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-06-19 Price Changed $250,010 NTREIS
• 2020-06-12 Listed $255,010 NTREIS

Property tax history

+56.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,831 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.