972 Noyack Path · Water Mill, NY 11976

$8,500,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,944 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2004

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Highest point (220 & acirc; & euro; & trade; above sea level) in the Hamptons. 3.1 acres with southern ocean views and eastern views of the lighthouse in Montauk . Spectacular setting . Room for new pool with ocean views ! Existing Har Tru court .

Key facts

• Southern ocean views
• Eastern views
• Room for new pool

Tags

• SOUTHERN OCEAN VIEWS
• EASTERN VIEWS
• HAR TRU COURT
• ROOM FOR NEW POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $8.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13k ($-156k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $6.62M (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $5.79M (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $5.79M (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $57,917/mo this rent would consume 386% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $792k of equity ($59k loan paydown + $734k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$1.27M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($8.37M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.78M; list at $8.50M implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,791,694 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.55%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $3,327,504
• Equity at exit: $6,825,973

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $11,070,017
• Equity at exit: $13,916,690

Cash invested: $2,380,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $57,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$44,575
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$10,625 /mo · $127,500/yr
• Insurance: −$3,542
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,163
• Net cashflow: $-12,987

Break-even live

Break-even rent $74,356

Max offer price $6,620,731

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7,113	-5% $-10,050	+0% $-12,987	+5% $-15,924	+10% $-18,861
Rent	-10% $-17,563	-5% $-15,275	+0% $-12,987	+5% $-10,699	+10% $-8,412
Rate	-1.0pp $-8,707	-0.5pp $-10,825	base $-12,987	+0.5pp $-15,190	+1.0pp $-17,431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,125,000
• Closing costs: $255,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $8,500,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $8,500,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $8,500,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $695,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$476,132
• − Property taxes: −$127,500
• − Insurance: −$42,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$55,600
• − Management: −$55,600
• − Depreciation: −$247,273
• Taxable loss: −$309,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$74,305
• After-tax cash flow: $-81,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1314.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $8,500,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listed $7,000,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-02 Listed $6,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $2,778,050 Public Records
• 2016-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $1,832,300 Public Records
• 1999-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $1,680,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $1,295,000 Public Records
• 1988-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $601,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $11,140 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.