48 S South Seas Ct · Barnegat, NJ 08005

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Condo public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1974 $230/sqft · 16% below area Est $257k · 16% under $200/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UPDATE CONDO HAS BEEN PAINTED AND NEW FLOORS COMING AS WELL AS BATH UPGRADES. One of Crosswinds favorite model, 2 bedroom ranch. Was used as a rental and being sold as is. Tenant lived for the past 8 years and they enjoyed the condo. Priced below market for a quick sale, similar unit just sold for a much higher price with no Florida room. and you are already ahead of the market. Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional financing

Key facts

• Storage room
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• STORAGE ROOM
• POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.6% in Barnegat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#310 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $162k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,033
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -16.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,920
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $19,561
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,086/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,119

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39 Mediterranean Ct Barnegat, NJ	2.0	1.0	698	$2,550	$3.65	18d	1	0.19mi
900 Barnegat Blvd N Barnegat, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.5	1096	$2,310	$2.11	1d	6	0.70mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $215,000 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    status $215,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    status Pending 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    UPDATE CONDO HAS BEEN PAINTED AND NEW FLOORS COMING AS WELL AS BATH UPGRADES. One of Crosswinds favorite model, 2 bedroom ranch. Was used as a rental and being sold as is. Tenant lived for the past 8 years and they enjoyed the condo. Priced below market for a quick sale, similar unit just sold for a much higher price with no Florida room. and you are already ahead of the market. Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional financing

14. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Update CONDO HAS BEEN Painted and more improvements to follow including new floors and bath upgrades. SIMILIAR 2Bedroom ranch model just sold for $235,000 in Crosswinds without florida room. Condo features 2 bedroom ranch on first floor. Features great location Florida Room, storage room off Florida room, Great location in community. Features include 2 bedrooms, fwa heat and many facilities including pool, tennis courts, clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, party room, basketball courts and more. Limitations on renting and pets Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional loans Any questions call Margett at at Crosswinds

15. 2026-04-23
    status Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    UPDATE CONDO HAS BEEN PAINTED AND NEW FLOORS COMING AS WELL AS BATH UPGRADES. One of Crosswinds favorite model, 2 bedroom ranch. Was used as a rental and being sold as is. Tenant lived for the past 8 years and they enjoyed the condo. Priced below market for a quick sale, similar unit just sold for a much higher price with no Florida room. and you are already ahead of the market. Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional financing

16. 2026-04-23
    status Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    UPDATE CONDO HAS BEEN PAINTED AND NEW FLOORS COMING AS WELL AS BATH UPGRADES. One of Crosswinds favorite model, 2 bedroom ranch. Was used as a rental and being sold as is. Tenant lived for the past 8 years and they enjoyed the condo. Priced below market for a quick sale, similar unit just sold for a much higher price with no Florida room. and you are already ahead of the market. Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional financing

17. 2026-04-22
    historical 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Update CONDO HAS BEEN Painted and more improvements to follow including new floors and bath upgrades. SIMILIAR 2Bedroom ranch model just sold for $235,000 in Crosswinds without florida room. Condo features 2 bedroom ranch on first floor. Features great location Florida Room, storage room off Florida room, Great location in community. Features include 2 bedrooms, fwa heat and many facilities including pool, tennis courts, clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, party room, basketball courts and more. Limitations on renting and pets Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional loans Any questions call Margett at at Crosswinds

18. 2026-04-12
    price $215,000 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    UPDATE CONDO HAS BEEN PAINTED AND NEW FLOORS COMING AS WELL AS BATH UPGRADES. One of Crosswinds favorite model, 2 bedroom ranch. Was used as a rental and being sold as is. Tenant lived for the past 8 years and they enjoyed the condo. Priced below market for a quick sale, similar unit just sold for a much higher price with no Florida room. and you are already ahead of the market. Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional financing

19. 2026-04-11
    price $215,000 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Update CONDO HAS BEEN Painted and more improvements to follow including new floors and bath upgrades. SIMILIAR 2Bedroom ranch model just sold for $235,000 in Crosswinds without florida room. Condo features 2 bedroom ranch on first floor. Features great location Florida Room, storage room off Florida room, Great location in community. Features include 2 bedrooms, fwa heat and many facilities including pool, tennis courts, clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, party room, basketball courts and more. Limitations on renting and pets Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional loans Any questions call Margett at at Crosswinds

20. 2026-04-06
    listed $237,900 Active 442-char remark

    Show marketing remark (442 chars)

    UPDATE CONDO HAS BEEN PAINTED AND NEW FLOORS COMING AS WELL AS BATH UPGRADES. One of Crosswinds favorite model, 2 bedroom ranch. Was used as a rental and being sold as is. Tenant lived for the past 8 years and they enjoyed the condo. Priced below market for a quick sale, similar unit just sold for a much higher price with no Florida room. and you are already ahead of the market. Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional financing

21. 2026-04-04
    listed $234,900 Active 640-char remark

    Show marketing remark (640 chars)

    Update CONDO HAS BEEN Painted and more improvements to follow including new floors and bath upgrades. SIMILIAR 2Bedroom ranch model just sold for $235,000 in Crosswinds without florida room. Condo features 2 bedroom ranch on first floor. Features great location Florida Room, storage room off Florida room, Great location in community. Features include 2 bedrooms, fwa heat and many facilities including pool, tennis courts, clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, party room, basketball courts and more. Limitations on renting and pets Crosswinds is fannie Mae approved for conventional loans Any questions call Margett at at Crosswinds

22. 2005-11-10
    soldstatus $162,500
23. 2005-11-07
    soldstatus $162,500
24. 2005-11-07
    listed $162,500
25. 1988-09-23
    soldstatus $53,000
26. 1988-09-23
    soldstatus $53,000
27. 1986-08-04
    soldstatus $44,500
28. 1983-03-01
    soldstatus $31,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,086 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,220 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,134/yr (+$94/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,086
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,469
• − Management: −$2,469
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $1,064
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$255
• After-tax cash flow: $4,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Barnegat

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #9556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 26,866
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+577.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $215,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $237,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $234,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $162,500 Public Records
• 2005-11-07 Listed $162,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-11-07 Sold (MLS) $162,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1988-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1986-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 1983-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,086 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.