27519 Paddle Grove Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$330,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,901 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2025 7,061 sqft lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $341k · at est. $97/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this stunning one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a dedicated study, showcasing the popular Laurel floor plan in the highly sought-after Sunterra community of Katy. The home offers a formal dining area and a bright, open-concept layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The contemporary kitchen is appointed with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample workspace. Elegant laminate flooring flows throughout the home, complemented by modern wood-style blinds. The cozy study offers flexible use for a home office or hobby room. Additional features include a functional sprinkler system and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Sunterra provides a

Key facts

• Formal dining area
• Granite countertops
• One-story home

Tags

• ONE-STORY HOME
• DEDICATED STUDY
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Grandmanors association; Annual association fee of $1,160; Association amenities include clubhouse, playground; fee covers clubhouse, common areas, recreation facilities; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Slab foundation; Built in 2025; Composition roof; Total living area about 2,047
• Construction: Brick and stone construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2025
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Pantry; Breakfast nook (approx. 15 x 9); Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, approx. 18 x 14); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 12 x 10); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 12 x 10); Bedrooms possible: 3
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air (Electric); Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Insulated doors; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,541 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,879
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -1.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27519 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,035 (+7%)	0mo	$371,990	$183	72
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,859 (-2%)	0mo	$299,990	$161	71
3036 Huntersville Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-1%)	1mo	$334,990	$179	68
5814 Capri Forest Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,165 (+14%)	1mo	$314,900	$145	63
27507 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,170 (+14%)	0mo	$364,990	$168	60
3056 Huntersville Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,015 (+6%)	0mo	$346,990	$172	59
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,056 (+8%)	0mo	$343,990	$167	58
27618 Spearmint Ridge Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-6%)	0mo	$345,990	$193	58
3017 Paradise Capri Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,883 (-1%)	1mo	$300,000	$159	56
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,168 (+14%)	0mo	$335,990	$155	55
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,134 (+12%)	0mo	$305,000	$143	52
26843 Vanilla Pearls Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (-13%)	0mo	$254,240	$154	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-69,059
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-99,688
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,252/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $307,737

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $-33	+0% $-126	+5% $-219	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-227	+0% $-126	+5% $-25	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $-42	base $-126	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	46d	1	0.09mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	46d	1	0.14mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	23d	1	0.24mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	19d	1	0.24mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	0.41mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	46d	1	0.43mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	46d	1	0.50mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	0d	25	0.55mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	0.60mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	15d	1	0.63mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	24d	1	0.65mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	0.66mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	26d	1	0.67mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	0.68mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	46d	1	0.68mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	15d	1	0.68mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	0.70mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	15d	1	0.71mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	0.71mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	15d	1	0.72mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	0.75mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	0.75mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	26d	1	0.75mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	46d	1	0.75mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	15d	1	0.76mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	46d	1	0.94mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	46d	1	1.25mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,024	$1.60	0d	17	1.33mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	46d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    price $335,000 881-char remark
16. 2026-02-25
    price $345,000 881-char remark
17. 2026-02-04
    listed $355,000 Active 881-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,252 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,039 · $503/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,787/yr (+$316/mo · 168.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,252
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,463
• − Management: −$2,463
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$7,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,750
• After-tax cash flow: $238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $355,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,252 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.