23069 W Milton Dr · Surprise, AZ 85361

$389,947

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Land · 330 Days on market

Built 2025 1.00 ac lot $181/sqft · 8% above area Est $361k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED ON ONE ACRE LOT IN WITTMANN, AZ. OVER-SIZED 4BR/3BA ''HARMONY'' MODEL WITH 2,160 SQ FT. BEAUTIFUL UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH HARDWOOD CABINETS & SOLID SURFACE COUNTERS. UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN PROVIDES PLENTY OF SPACE FOR A LARGE FAMILY OR HOUSE GUESTS. HOME OFFERS A MODERN DESIGN & NEUTRAL COLOR SCHEMES WITH 9FT FLAT CEILINGS. HOME IS GROUND SET & HAS 2 X 6 CONSTRUCTION. CONVENIENT LOCATION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND NEAR THE US60/GRAND AVE. NO HOA! 5-WAY SHARED WELL. ENJOY THE WIDE OPEN DESERT WITH BEAUTIFUL VIEWS! *UP TO $8,000 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS INCLUDED*

Key facts

• One acre lot
• Hardwood cabinets
• Unique floor plan

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD CABINETS
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERS
• UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Nadaburg Unified School District (4252) (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #90 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 330 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $275k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,153 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 330 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.10%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,371
• List price: $389,947
• Delta: 7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $242,012
• Equity at exit: $351,295

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $689,547
• Equity at exit: $757,581

Cash invested: $109,185 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,849/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,411

Max offer price $389,947

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,487
• Closing costs: $11,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23175 W Skinner Rd Wittmann, AZ	5.0	2.0	2451	$3,999	$1.63	1d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,947 Active 330 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,947 Active 329 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,947 Active 328 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,947 Active 327 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $389,947 Active 325 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,947 Active 321 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,947 Active 320 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $395,947 Active 319 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $395,947 Active 316 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,947 Active 315 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,947 Active 314 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,947 Active 313 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,947 Active 312 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    price $395,947 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    BRAND NEW MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED ON ONE ACRE LOT IN WITTMANN, AZ. OVER-SIZED 4BR/3BA ''HARMONY'' MODEL WITH 2,160 SQ FT. BEAUTIFUL UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH HARDWOOD CABINETS & SOLID SURFACE COUNTERS. UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN PROVIDES PLENTY OF SPACE FOR A LARGE FAMILY OR HOUSE GUESTS. HOME OFFERS A MODERN DESIGN & NEUTRAL COLOR SCHEMES WITH 9FT FLAT CEILINGS. HOME IS GROUND SET & HAS 2 X 6 CONSTRUCTION. CONVENIENT LOCATION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND NEAR THE US60/GRAND AVE. NO HOA! 5-WAY SHARED WELL. ENJOY THE WIDE OPEN DESERT WITH BEAUTIFUL VIEWS! *UP TO $8,000 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS INCLUDED*

15. 2026-03-25
    price $396,947 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    BRAND NEW MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED ON ONE ACRE LOT IN WITTMANN, AZ. OVER-SIZED 4BR/3BA ''HARMONY'' MODEL WITH 2,160 SQ FT. BEAUTIFUL UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH HARDWOOD CABINETS & SOLID SURFACE COUNTERS. UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN PROVIDES PLENTY OF SPACE FOR A LARGE FAMILY OR HOUSE GUESTS. HOME OFFERS A MODERN DESIGN & NEUTRAL COLOR SCHEMES WITH 9FT FLAT CEILINGS. HOME IS GROUND SET & HAS 2 X 6 CONSTRUCTION. CONVENIENT LOCATION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND NEAR THE US60/GRAND AVE. NO HOA! 5-WAY SHARED WELL. ENJOY THE WIDE OPEN DESERT WITH BEAUTIFUL VIEWS! *UP TO $8,000 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS INCLUDED*

16. 2025-11-07
    price $397,947 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    BRAND NEW MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED ON ONE ACRE LOT IN WITTMANN, AZ. OVER-SIZED 4BR/3BA ''HARMONY'' MODEL WITH 2,160 SQ FT. BEAUTIFUL UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH HARDWOOD CABINETS & SOLID SURFACE COUNTERS. UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN PROVIDES PLENTY OF SPACE FOR A LARGE FAMILY OR HOUSE GUESTS. HOME OFFERS A MODERN DESIGN & NEUTRAL COLOR SCHEMES WITH 9FT FLAT CEILINGS. HOME IS GROUND SET & HAS 2 X 6 CONSTRUCTION. CONVENIENT LOCATION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND NEAR THE US60/GRAND AVE. NO HOA! 5-WAY SHARED WELL. ENJOY THE WIDE OPEN DESERT WITH BEAUTIFUL VIEWS! *UP TO $8,000 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS INCLUDED*

17. 2025-08-28
    price $398,947 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    BRAND NEW MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED ON ONE ACRE LOT IN WITTMANN, AZ. OVER-SIZED 4BR/3BA ''HARMONY'' MODEL WITH 2,160 SQ FT. BEAUTIFUL UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH HARDWOOD CABINETS & SOLID SURFACE COUNTERS. UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN PROVIDES PLENTY OF SPACE FOR A LARGE FAMILY OR HOUSE GUESTS. HOME OFFERS A MODERN DESIGN & NEUTRAL COLOR SCHEMES WITH 9FT FLAT CEILINGS. HOME IS GROUND SET & HAS 2 X 6 CONSTRUCTION. CONVENIENT LOCATION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND NEAR THE US60/GRAND AVE. NO HOA! 5-WAY SHARED WELL. ENJOY THE WIDE OPEN DESERT WITH BEAUTIFUL VIEWS! *UP TO $8,000 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS INCLUDED*

18. 2025-07-23
    listed $399,947 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    BRAND NEW MANUFACTURED HOME LOCATED ON ONE ACRE LOT IN WITTMANN, AZ. OVER-SIZED 4BR/3BA ''HARMONY'' MODEL WITH 2,160 SQ FT. BEAUTIFUL UPGRADED KITCHEN WITH HARDWOOD CABINETS & SOLID SURFACE COUNTERS. UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN PROVIDES PLENTY OF SPACE FOR A LARGE FAMILY OR HOUSE GUESTS. HOME OFFERS A MODERN DESIGN & NEUTRAL COLOR SCHEMES WITH 9FT FLAT CEILINGS. HOME IS GROUND SET & HAS 2 X 6 CONSTRUCTION. CONVENIENT LOCATION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PHOENIX AREA AND NEAR THE US60/GRAND AVE. NO HOA! 5-WAY SHARED WELL. ENJOY THE WIDE OPEN DESERT WITH BEAUTIFUL VIEWS! *UP TO $8,000 TOWARDS BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS INCLUDED*

19. 2024-06-26
    soldstatus $275,000
20. 2008-10-30
    soldstatus $211,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,843
• − Property taxes: −$5,849
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,839
• − Management: −$3,839
• − Depreciation: −$11,344
• Taxable loss: −$676
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$162
• After-tax cash flow: $5,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nadaburg Unified School District (4252)
• NCES district ID: 0405460
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,864
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6443
• State rank: #90 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 160,031
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+87.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $395,947 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $396,947 ARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $397,947 ARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $398,947 ARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $399,947 ARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $211,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $173 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.