Mesquite Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$297,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,963 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The uniquely-designed, two-story Mesquite floor plan holds three bedrooms and two-and a half bathrooms, the perfect home for most any lifestyle. Upon entering your new Mesquite home, you will discover your convenient entry closet, the downstairs powder room, and access to your two-car garage. Following down the foyer, you are met by your spacious family room and stairway access to the second floor. Your walk-in utility room and kitchen opens up to the family room, while the formal dining area is ideal for hosting dinners with the entire family, fully embracing the open-concept layout. Your kitchen boasts an immense amount of space complete with granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, a large walk-in pantry, and a kitchen island! Head across your dining room to your backyard, where you are met with the optional covered patio - perfect for backyard barbecues. When it's time to rest, wander to your private master suite accompanied by cultured marble countertops, a luxurious super shower, as well as your sizable walk-in closet. You will never have to compromise your space and comfort with the Mesquite floor plan. Head upstairs where you will come across the two additional bathrooms, and the full secondary bath across the hall from the bedrooms. Your CastleRock Mesquite home is built with you and your family's well-being in mind. That's why each of our homes are Energy Star Certified, providing you with. ..

Key facts

• Walk in utility room
• Entry closet
• Two car garage

Tags

• ENTRY CLOSET
• DOWNSTAIRS POWDER ROOM
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• WALK IN UTILITY ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $297,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $392,223.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-851 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,421 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.30%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,223
• List price: $297,990
• Delta: -24.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13016 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,963 (0%)	0mo	$312,990	$159	84
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (-2%)	1mo	$360,990	$188	79
2921 Mariner Island Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,081 (+6%)	1mo	$375,990	$181	73
13421 Diamond Reef Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-3%)	1mo	$284,900	$150	68
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,738 (-12%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	66
13009 Oleander Bay Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+4%)	0mo	$325,000	$159	65
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,160 (+10%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	60
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,063 (+5%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	60
14121 Baikal Manor Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,214 (+13%)	1mo	$349,990	$158	46
2221 Lake Mist Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,178 (+11%)	0mo	$326,900	$150	46
2417 Arbor Edge Xing	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,204 (+12%)	0mo	$345,000	$157	45
2725 Arbor Edge Xing	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,174 (+11%)	1mo	$339,500	$156	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-115,433
• Equity at exit: $58,482

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-160,640
• Equity at exit: $33,912

Cash invested: $109,822 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,057
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$490 /mo · $5,883/yr
• Insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-851

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,431

Max offer price $269,121

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-580	-5% $-715	+0% $-851	+5% $-986	+10% $-1,122
Rent	-10% $-1,037	-5% $-944	+0% $-851	+5% $-758	+10% $-665
Rate	-1.0pp $-653	-0.5pp $-751	base $-851	+0.5pp $-952	+1.0pp $-1,056

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,056
• Closing costs: $11,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.55mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	24d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	45d	1	0.95mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	6d	2	1.04mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	1.10mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,430	$2.45	1d	21	1.11mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	7d	1	1.20mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	13d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $297,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,990 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $297,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $297,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $297,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $297,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2025-06-04
    price $297,990 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    The uniquely-designed, two-story Mesquite floor plan holds three bedrooms and two-and a half bathrooms, the perfect home for most any lifestyle. Upon entering your new Mesquite home, you will discover your convenient entry closet, the downstairs powder room, and access to your two-car garage. Following down the foyer, you are met by your spacious family room and stairway access to the second floor. Your walk-in utility room and kitchen opens up to the family room, while the formal dining area is ideal for hosting dinners with the entire family, fully embracing the open-concept layout. Your kitchen boasts an immense amount of space complete with granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, a large walk-in pantry, and a kitchen island! Head across your dining room to your backyard, where you are met with the optional covered patio - perfect for backyard barbecues. When it's time to rest, wander to your private master suite accompanied by cultured marble countertops, a luxurious super shower, as well as your sizable walk-in closet. You will never have to compromise your space and comfort with the Mesquite floor plan. Head upstairs where you will come across the two additional bathrooms, and the full secondary bath across the hall from the bedrooms. Your CastleRock Mesquite home is built with you and your family's well-being in mind. That's why each of our homes are Energy Star Certified, providing you with. ..

16. 2025-04-01
    listed $299,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    The uniquely-designed, two-story Mesquite floor plan holds three bedrooms and two-and a half bathrooms, the perfect home for most any lifestyle. Upon entering your new Mesquite home, you will discover your convenient entry closet, the downstairs powder room, and access to your two-car garage. Following down the foyer, you are met by your spacious family room and stairway access to the second floor. Your walk-in utility room and kitchen opens up to the family room, while the formal dining area is ideal for hosting dinners with the entire family, fully embracing the open-concept layout. Your kitchen boasts an immense amount of space complete with granite countertops paired with a ceramic tile backsplash, flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, a large walk-in pantry, and a kitchen island! Head across your dining room to your backyard, where you are met with the optional covered patio - perfect for backyard barbecues. When it's time to rest, wander to your private master suite accompanied by cultured marble countertops, a luxurious super shower, as well as your sizable walk-in closet. You will never have to compromise your space and comfort with the Mesquite floor plan. Head upstairs where you will come across the two additional bathrooms, and the full secondary bath across the hall from the bedrooms. Your CastleRock Mesquite home is built with you and your family's well-being in mind. That's why each of our homes are Energy Star Certified, providing you with. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,971
• − Property taxes: −$5,883
• − Insurance: −$1,961
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − Depreciation: −$11,410
• Taxable loss: −$17,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $297,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $299,990 Zillow