961 Shady Brk · New Braunfels, TX 78132

$287,500

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Built 2022 9,539 sqft lot $116/sqft · 21% below area Est $362k · 21% under $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious two story home in the heart of New Braunfels! This well-designed five bedroom, two and half baths residence features an open floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the main level, offering privacy and comfort. Upstairs bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy a large, fully fenced backyard perfect for outdoor gatherings, pets, or play. Ideally situated with easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment, plus quick access to IH 35 for commuting. A fantastic opportunity in a prime location!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Two story home
• Primary bedroom

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• QUICK ACCESS TO IH 35

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1096 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,095 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.85%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,292
• List price: $287,500
• Delta: -20.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4026 Belden	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,347 (-5%)	3mo	$275,000	$117	56
3993 Prairie Crk	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,439 (-1%)	20mo	$243,000	$100	55
3946 Turtle	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,356 (-5%)	7mo	$280,000	$119	54
3848 Northaven Trl	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,210 (-10%)	1mo	$290,000	$131	41
3828 Northaven Trl	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,210 (-10%)	0mo	$294,000	$133	40
3772 Swift Fox Rd	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,173 (-12%)	10mo	$233,549	$107	36
729 Horsetail Ln	0.68mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,210 (-10%)	11mo	$351,999	$159	35
3745 Axis Hill St	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,173 (-12%)	11mo	$266,199	$123	35
718 Bee Ridge Pt	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,210 (-10%)	11mo	$312,699	$141	33
3717 Swift Fox Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,173 (-12%)	10mo	$238,999	$110	32
750 Llano Sky Trl	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,173 (-12%)	12mo	$250,104	$115	31
727 Bee Ridge Pt	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,210 (-10%)	12mo	$311,999	$141	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-81,724
• Equity at exit: $42,867

10-year hold

• IRR: -58.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-131,528
• Equity at exit: $24,858

Cash invested: $80,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1096
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,508
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,865/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,613

Max offer price $206,337

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-297	-5% $-378	+0% $-459	+5% $-541	+10% $-622
Rent	-10% $-620	-5% $-540	+0% $-459	+5% $-379	+10% $-299
Rate	-1.0pp $-315	-0.5pp $-386	base $-459	+0.5pp $-534	+1.0pp $-610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,875
• Closing costs: $8,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
962 Shady Brk Marion, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,875	$0.80	24d	1	0.04mi
950 Shady Brk Marion, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,900	$0.81	44d	1	0.07mi
946 Shady Brk Marion, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,875	$0.80	24d	1	0.08mi
914 Shady Holw New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,900	$0.81	24d	1	0.15mi
906 Shady Holw New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,875	$0.80	24d	1	0.16mi
810 Shady Brk Marion, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$1,830	$0.74	21d	1	0.28mi
3951 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,100	$0.85	2d	1	0.47mi
3939 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,800	$0.76	44d	1	0.49mi
3939 Trail de Paris New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,799	$0.76	13d	1	0.49mi
3953 Prairie Crk New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,200	$0.89	12d	1	0.53mi
4028 Northaven Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2347	$2,100	$0.89	2d	1	0.54mi
3964 Northaven Trl New Braunfels, TX	5.0	2.5	2470	$2,050	$0.83	12d	1	0.61mi
4019 Belden Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$1,870	$0.79	13d	1	0.62mi
3936 Northaven Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2347	$1,897	$0.81	44d	1	0.63mi
3645 Swift Fox Rd New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,695	$1.06	44d	1	0.84mi
713 Killdeer Trl New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-19
   price $287,500 602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (602 chars)

   Spacious two story home in the heart of New Braunfels! This well-designed five bedroom, two and half baths residence features an open floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the main level, offering privacy and comfort. Upstairs bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy a large, fully fenced backyard perfect for outdoor gatherings, pets, or play. Ideally situated with easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment, plus quick access to IH 35 for commuting. A fantastic opportunity in a prime location!

2. 2026-03-17
   price $299,900 602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (602 chars)

   Spacious two story home in the heart of New Braunfels! This well-designed five bedroom, two and half baths residence features an open floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the main level, offering privacy and comfort. Upstairs bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy a large, fully fenced backyard perfect for outdoor gatherings, pets, or play. Ideally situated with easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment, plus quick access to IH 35 for commuting. A fantastic opportunity in a prime location!

3. 2026-02-19
   listed $309,900 Active 602-char remark

   Show marketing remark (602 chars)

   Spacious two story home in the heart of New Braunfels! This well-designed five bedroom, two and half baths residence features an open floor plan ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom is conveniently located on the main level, offering privacy and comfort. Upstairs bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy a large, fully fenced backyard perfect for outdoor gatherings, pets, or play. Ideally situated with easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment, plus quick access to IH 35 for commuting. A fantastic opportunity in a prime location!

4. 2022-09-30
   historical
5. 2022-08-30
   price $381,900
6. 2022-08-30
   status Back on Market
7. 2022-02-23
   status Pending
8. 2022-02-18
   listed $429,900 New
9. 2022-02-18
   price $429,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,865 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,261 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,104
• − Property taxes: −$4,865
• − Insurance: −$1,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,364
• Taxable loss: −$10,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,561
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-33.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $287,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $299,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $309,900 CTXMLS
• 2022-09-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2022-08-30 Price Changed $381,900 LERA
• 2022-08-30 Relisted — LERA
• 2022-02-23 Pending — LERA
• 2022-02-18 Price Changed $429,900 LERA
• 2022-02-18 Listed $429,900 LERA

Property tax history

+80.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,865 · +100.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.