3719 Hedge Row St · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$122,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1997 9,453 sqft lot $137/sqft · at area comps Est $126k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Life Living Awaits! Welcome to your perfect retreat in the highly sought-after boater community of Oak Trail Shores! Nestled among mature trees, this property offers a private, serene setting with plenty of space to park your boat, jet skis, or other water toys. Tucked into the trees, you'll find a beautifully updated two-bedroom, two-bathroom mobile home. The elongated patio is ideal for relaxing with a cup of coffee or hosting friends—perfect for enjoying breathtaking sunsets and stargazing under the midnight sky. Step inside to discover a bright, open floor plan featuring wood floors throughout, vaulted ceilings for added space and light, and a spacious living area ideal for entertaining. The kitchen is a standout, complete with an island, stainless steel appliances, and modern finishes. The guest bedroom includes a walk-in closet and would also make a perfect home office. The primary suite is generously sized and includes its own private en-suite bath. A convenient utility room offers space for a stackable washer and dryer. Located just a short drive from the historic Granbury Square, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, parks, and more. Plus, the community boat ramp is just a couple streets away—bring your water toys and spend your weekends out on Granbury lake!

Key facts

• Elongated patio
• Wood floors
• Spacious living area

Tags

• PRIVATE SERENE SETTING
• ELONGATED PATIO
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD FLOORS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $847 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.02%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,934
• List price: $122,500
• Delta: -2.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3817 Pecan Valley Ct	0.21mi	2/2.0	784 (-12%)	1mo	$250,000	$319	68
3617 Greenbrook St	0.23mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	12mo	$139,000	$165	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,698
• Equity at exit: $18,265

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,410
• Equity at exit: $10,592

Cash invested: $34,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,079/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,013

Max offer price $122,500

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,625
• Closing costs: $3,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3007 Inwood Trl Granbury, TX	1.0	1.0	902	$800	$0.89	19d	1	0.70mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,500 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,500 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,500 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,500 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,500 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,500 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,500 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $122,500 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $122,500 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,500 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,500 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,500 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,500 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $122,500 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    Lake Life Living Awaits! Welcome to your perfect retreat in the highly sought-after boater community of Oak Trail Shores! Nestled among mature trees, this property offers a private, serene setting with plenty of space to park your boat, jet skis, or other water toys. Tucked into the trees, you'll find a beautifully updated two-bedroom, two-bathroom mobile home. The elongated patio is ideal for relaxing with a cup of coffee or hosting friends—perfect for enjoying breathtaking sunsets and stargazing under the midnight sky. Step inside to discover a bright, open floor plan featuring wood floors throughout, vaulted ceilings for added space and light, and a spacious living area ideal for entertaining. The kitchen is a standout, complete with an island, stainless steel appliances, and modern finishes. The guest bedroom includes a walk-in closet and would also make a perfect home office. The primary suite is generously sized and includes its own private en-suite bath. A convenient utility room offers space for a stackable washer and dryer. Located just a short drive from the historic Granbury Square, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, parks, and more. Plus, the community boat ramp is just a couple streets away—bring your water toys and spend your weekends out on Granbury lake!

15. 2026-01-13
    listed $125,000 Active 1318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1318 chars)

    Lake Life Living Awaits! Welcome to your perfect retreat in the highly sought-after boater community of Oak Trail Shores! Nestled among mature trees, this property offers a private, serene setting with plenty of space to park your boat, jet skis, or other water toys. Tucked into the trees, you'll find a beautifully updated two-bedroom, two-bathroom mobile home. The elongated patio is ideal for relaxing with a cup of coffee or hosting friends—perfect for enjoying breathtaking sunsets and stargazing under the midnight sky. Step inside to discover a bright, open floor plan featuring wood floors throughout, vaulted ceilings for added space and light, and a spacious living area ideal for entertaining. The kitchen is a standout, complete with an island, stainless steel appliances, and modern finishes. The guest bedroom includes a walk-in closet and would also make a perfect home office. The primary suite is generously sized and includes its own private en-suite bath. A convenient utility room offers space for a stackable washer and dryer. Located just a short drive from the historic Granbury Square, you’ll have easy access to shopping, dining, parks, and more. Plus, the community boat ramp is just a couple streets away—bring your water toys and spend your weekends out on Granbury lake!

16. 2025-09-15
    price $125,000
17. 2025-07-10
    price $130,000
18. 2025-05-19
    price $135,000
19. 2025-04-11
    listed $140,000 Active
20. 2024-05-29
    status Active
21. 2024-05-29
    soldstatus Closed
22. 2023-12-05
    soldstatus
23. 2023-12-05
    soldstatus
24. 2023-11-08
    status Pending
25. 2023-11-08
    historical
26. 2023-10-20
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2023-10-02
    listed $124,967 Active
28. 2023-07-28
    soldstatus
29. 2018-02-01
    soldstatus
30. 1996-09-03
    soldstatus
31. 1993-06-03
    soldstatus
32. 1988-04-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,162/yr (+$97/mo · 107.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,862
• − Property taxes: −$1,079
• − Insurance: −$612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$3,564
• Taxable income: $817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$196
• After-tax cash flow: $2,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $122,500 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-11 Listed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-05-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-11-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-10-20 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-10-02 Listed $124,967 NTREIS
• 2023-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,079 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.