Lassen Plan · Dayton, TX 77535

$358,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,447 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Good condition 3-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Lassen floor plan opens with an inviting porch entry that leads past private study and a powder room. An impressive open kitchen with a center island is adjacent, and flows into a dining area and an airy great room, creating the perfect space for entertaining and everyday living. The owner's suite is conveniently located on the main level, and offers a walk-in closet and a private bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Upstairs, there are two bedrooms and a bath, as well as a versatile loft space.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Porch entry
• Great room

Tags

• PORCH ENTRY
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $358,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $400,706.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $359k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (46.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (53.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (53.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.5% in Dayton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richter El (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 875 students, 62% FRL); Wilson J H (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,396 students, 74% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1608 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,038 (53.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.50%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 20.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,706
• List price: $358,990
• Delta: -10.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1515 Northern Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,326 (-5%)	1mo	$425,000	$183	81
1503 Northern Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,450 (+0%)	1mo	$450,000	$184	80
1247 Cr 66112	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,220 (-9%)	4mo	$383,900	$173	74
1006 Road 6604	0.33mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,428 (-1%)	3mo	$380,000	$157	72
1258 Spanish Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,318 (-5%)	4mo	$419,000	$181	69
1200 Road 66112	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,220 (-9%)	3mo	$399,900	$180	68
1324 Road 6604	0.45mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,500 (+2%)	1mo	$440,000	$176	66
212 Road 6613	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,367 (-3%)	3mo	$365,000	$154	64
31 Road 6609	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,510 (+3%)	1mo	$499,900	$199	64
158 Road 6609	0.60mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,451 (+0%)	2mo	$369,975	$151	63
229 Road 662	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,535 (+4%)	2mo	$355,000	$140	62
3039 Coast Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,525 (+3%)	3mo	$474,900	$188	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-157,231
• Equity at exit: $59,746

10-year hold

• IRR: -86.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.28×
• Total profit: $-255,695
• Equity at exit: $34,646

Cash invested: $112,198 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 64 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.5 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $439,994 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -12.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1608
• Price-to-rent: 17.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$501 /mo · $6,011/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-1,450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,505

Max offer price $190,948

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,173	-5% $-1,311	+0% $-1,450	+5% $-1,588	+10% $-1,727
Rent	-10% $-1,582	-5% $-1,516	+0% $-1,450	+5% $-1,384	+10% $-1,318
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,248	-0.5pp $-1,348	base $-1,450	+0.5pp $-1,553	+1.0pp $-1,659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,176
• Closing costs: $12,021
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $358,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Lassen plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2447

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths and 1 half bath (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Active listing (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $358,990 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $358,990 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $358,990 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $358,990 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $358,990 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $358,990 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $358,990 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $358,990 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $358,990 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $358,990 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $358,990 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $358,990 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $358,990 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $358,990 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $358,990 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $358,990 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $358,990 Active 102 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $358,990 Active 100 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $358,990 Active 98 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $358,990 Active 97 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $358,990 Active 96 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $358,990 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $358,990 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $358,990 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $358,990 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $358,990 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $358,990 Active 89 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $358,990 Active 88 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $358,990 Active 87 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $358,990 Active 86 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $358,990 Active 85 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $358,990 Active 84 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $358,990 Active 83 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $358,990 Active 82 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $358,990 Active 81 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $358,990 Active 80 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $358,990 Active 79 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $358,990 Active 78 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $358,990 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $358,990 Active 75 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $358,990 Active 74 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $358,990 Active 73 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $358,990 Active 72 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $358,990 Active 69 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $358,990 Active 67 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $358,990 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $358,990 Active 64 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $358,990 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $358,990 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $358,990 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,446
• − Property taxes: −$6,011
• − Insurance: −$2,004
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$11,657
• Taxable loss: −$25,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,067
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Dayton, TX, is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout with a good ROI for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Richter El F TX #1,921/4,322 Nat'l #22,595/41,679 Middle Kimmie M Brown El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 High Dayton H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $358,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Lassen plan (new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2447

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths and 1 half bath (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Active listing (new construction plan)