15 Swans Neck Ln · Water Mill, NY 11976

$5,700,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,603 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2001 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enviably positioned within an exclusive Water Mill South enclave, this private Hamptons retreat is set down a quiet cul de sac street along a beautiful agricultural corridor. A graceful sense of arrival is framed by mature specimen evergreens, flowering trees, and perennial cutting gardens, creating a lush landscape defined by natural beauty and privacy. Clad in cedar-shake siding, the 2-level home has 3,000 +/- SF with 4 bedrooms, 4 full baths, a dual-sided fireplace, detached 2-car garage, and heated pool. Inside and out, the home is impeccably maintained, featuring a cherry front door, a brand-new Trex deck pool side, upper deck, and a premium Buderus heating system. Enter a grand double

Key facts

• Dual-sided fireplace
• Flowering trees
• Cedar-shake siding

Tags

• QUIET CUL DE SAC STREET
• MATURE SPECIMEN EVERGREENS
• FLOWERING TREES
• PERENNIAL CUTTING GARDENS
• CEDAR-SHAKE SIDING
• DUAL-SIDED FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $5.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($93k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $5.19M (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $5.19M (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $51,939/mo this rent would consume 346% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $531k of equity ($39k loan paydown + $492k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $1.60M cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$852k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($5.53M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $2.28M; list at $5.70M implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,193,861 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $3,343,593
• Equity at exit: $4,577,417

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.29×
• Total profit: $10,040,192
• Equity at exit: $9,332,369

Cash invested: $1,596,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $51,939 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$29,891
• Tax from tax record: −$1,043 /mo · $12,514/yr
• Insurance: −$2,375
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,907
• Net cashflow: $7,722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $42,164

Max offer price $5,700,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,949	-5% $9,336	+0% $7,722	+5% $6,109	+10% $-2,299
Rent	-10% $3,619	-5% $5,671	+0% $7,722	+5% $9,774	+10% $11,825
Rate	-1.0pp $10,593	-0.5pp $9,172	base $7,722	+0.5pp $6,245	+1.0pp $4,743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,425,000
• Closing costs: $171,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,700,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $5,700,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $5,700,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,700,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,700,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,700,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,700,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    listed $5,700,000 Active
17. 2010-02-16
    soldstatus $2,275,100
18. 1987-09-23
    soldstatus $97,500
19. 1987-09-23
    soldstatus $97,500
20. 1987-08-19
    soldstatus $120,000
21. 1987-04-08
    soldstatus $485,000
22. 1987-02-20
    soldstatus $105,000
23. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $95,000
24. 1985-05-17
    soldstatus $81,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,514 · $1,043/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $54,422 · $4,535/mo
• Expected delta: +$41,908/yr (+$3,492/mo · 334.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $623,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$319,289
• − Property taxes: −$12,514
• − Insurance: −$28,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$49,861
• − Management: −$49,861
• − Depreciation: −$165,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$619
• After-tax cash flow: $93,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+6937.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $5,700,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $2,275,100 Public Records
• 1987-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1987-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1987-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $485,000 Public Records
• 1987-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1985-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $12,514 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.