202 N Henry St · Bay City, MI 48706

$98,700

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1884 4,791 sqft lot Est $128k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Highest & Best by Thursday, June 11th at 6:00 pm. Move right into this 3 bedroom home that has a full clean basement and huge parking area behind the home. Maintenance free vinyl siding and vinyl windows, fresh interior paint and carpet. New exterior doors, lighting fixtures, updated plumbing and new steps to the back door. Covered front porch is perfect for some lawn chairs to sit outside and relax. Within walking distance to the Midland Street Business District or to Vet's Park to enjoy all the summer festivities. Keys at closing.

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• New exterior doors
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• FULL CLEAN BASEMENT
• HUGE PARKING AREA
• MAINTENANCE FREE VINYL SIDING
• VINYL WINDOWS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW EXTERIOR DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Below-grade finished area: none reported; Below-grade area: 924 (below grade)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway with 3 or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Residential property; 1 1/2-story structure; Built in 1884; Subdivision: Litchfields Add; Facing near the corner of Vermont
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Basement foundation (full, block); Original construction year 1884
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; City limits location; Road frontage; City/County paved street

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor (16 x 11) with ceramic flooring; Appliances: Microwave, Range/Oven, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom (11 x 8, carpet); Second-floor bedroom (15 x 11, carpet); Second-floor bedroom (approx. 11 wide, carpet)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms, living room and dining room; Ceramic in kitchen and bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level) with ceramic flooring
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat (natural gas); Central A/C; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Main floor full bathroom; Has full basement (block foundation); Porch; Sidewalks; Street lights
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $682 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $99k implies a 558% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,219 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.73%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,184
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 S Dewitt St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (+2%)	7mo	$104,000	$87	63
401 E Florence St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+6%)	4mo	$125,000	$100	61
203 W Jenny St	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,233 (+5%)	7mo	$190,000	$154	53
607 W Jenny St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,236 (+5%)	3mo	$100,000	$81	52
301 S Alp St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (+2%)	9mo	$129,950	$109	52
214 S Warner St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,042 (-11%)	4mo	$113,000	$108	50
304 S Erie St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,011 (-14%)	3mo	$90,000	$89	50
809 N LINN St	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,029 (-12%)	2mo	$92,500	$90	49
1006 N Wenona St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,130 (-4%)	8mo	$125,000	$111	46
1004 N Williams St	0.65mi	4/1.0	1,020 (-13%)	4mo	$126,000	$124	44
309 W Fisher St	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,248 (+6%)	9mo	$140,000	$112	42
402 State St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-15%)	3mo	$109,000	$109	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $8,539
• Equity at exit: $14,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $39,007
• Equity at exit: $8,534

Cash invested: $27,636 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$518
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $98,700

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,675
• Closing costs: $2,961
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $98,700 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,700 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,700 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,700 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,700 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $98,700 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 540-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $98,700 Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,700 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $98,700 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,700 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 488-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $98,700 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,529
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$2,871
• Taxable income: $3,213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$771
• After-tax cash flow: $3,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+296.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $98,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-11-19 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-05-19 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-10-02 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-08-24 Listed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $969 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.